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Author: Minich MacGregor Wealth Management

Second Half of 2025

Preparing for the Second Half of 2025

Written by Minich MacGregor Wealth Management on . Posted in News, Posts.

In most quarters, we typically send a short “market recap” message looking back at the previous three months in the markets.  This quarter, we want to do something a little different by looking ahead.  Not to make predictions — we don’t waste our time with that sort of thing here at Minich MacGregor Wealth Management — but to mentally prepare ourselves for various possibilities.  The more prepared we are, the easier it will be to maintain a long-term perspective rather than overreact to headlines. 

To that end, let’s look at some of the storylines our team is following that could have an impact on the markets in the second half of the year.

Tariffs.  Back in April, the sweeping slate of tariffs enacted by the Trump Administration sent markets into a tailspin.  Many of those tariffs were eventually canceled or suspended, and markets normalized.  Since then, investors have entered a kind of “worst is over mindset.”  As many tariffs — which were originally suspended until July 9 — were further pushed back into August, the markets have continued to climb, unaffected by trade war fears. 

In recent weeks, however, President Trump has again begun suggesting the possibility of new tariffs against various countries.1  Furthermore, many of the “Liberation Day” tariffs announced back in April that were subsequently paused are set to go into effect in August. 

If tariff troubles begin rising again, it will be interesting to see whether investors react negatively, or whether the idea of tariffs has been normalized to the extent that it doesn’t really provoke a strong reaction.  Either way, while various trade deals have begun to materialize, we should still prepare ourselves for tariffs to continue influencing the pulse of the markets moving forward. 

Inflation.  One reason tariffs make both economists and investors nervous is because they can stoke inflation.  Since many tariffs have been suspended or were never enacted, inflation has remained low for the year, but there are signs the tariffs that are in play are finally starting to have an effect.  Consumer prices rose by 0.1% in May, and a further 0.3% in June, raising the overall inflation rate to 2.7% over the past twelve months.2  Those aren’t huge increases, but the fact that they apply to a wide variety of goods suggests that companies are now passing on the cost of tariffs to customers. 

For investors, this matters because it has a direct impact on…

Interest Rates.  The task of fighting inflation belongs to the Federal Reserve, which has a mandate to stabilize prices.  The Fed’s ability to do this largely rests on its ability to drive interest rates. 

President Trump has been very vocal about his desire for the Fed to lower interest rates quickly and significantly to help stimulate the economy.  The Fed has been resistant to that idea, however, preferring to see how tariffs will affect inflation first.  If inflation does continue to climb, it’s extremely unlikely the Fed will lower rates any time soon.  Depending on how things go, it’s even possible the Fed could raise interest rates again. 

It’s been said that interest rates act like ankle weights on stocks, in that they make it harder for them to rise and easier to fall.  Higher interest rates can depress both spending and borrowing, two things companies need to generate revenue, which is one of the things investors look for when deciding where to invest.  But there’s another reason rates matter right now: If they remain elevated, or even rise higher, the result could exacerbate our fourth and final storyline:

D.C. Drama. Due largely to his frustration with higher interest rates, President Trump has frequently criticized the Fed’s chairman, Jerome Powell.  On several occasions, the president has even suggested he might fire Powell.3  (At other times, he has also said he has no intention of doing so.) 

Under normal circumstances, this sort of beltway drama is interesting only to other politicians — but the idea of a president firing the chairman of the Federal Reserve is anything but normal.  You see, the Fed has historically functioned as an independent central bank, meaning its decisions do not need to be approved by either the president or Congress.  Why does that matter?  Because it gives the Fed freedom to accomplish its mission of maximum employment and stable prices during times of economic stress without having to seek approval first.  It also has historically shielded the Fed from being overly influenced or controlled by other factions in Washington.  In other words, it enables the Fed to focus on policy over politics. 

Whether President Trump can legally fire Powell is an open question.  The reason this could affect the markets, though, is because it would signal that the Fed’s independence is effectively over.  That, in turn, would change everything about how investors expect the Fed to act when it comes to monetary policy.  In other words, it would throw a major wrench of uncertainty into the markets.  And uncertainty, as we know, is ultimately what causes volatility. 

So, there you have it.  Some of these storylines may have a significant impact on the markets.  Others may be complete nonfactors.  The ultimate takeaway we must remember is to avoid overreacting to any of them.  Remember: While storylines like this can drive the markets for weeks, months, even quarters, we are investing for years. 

As always, our team will continue to keep a close eye on Washington and Wall Street, so you don’t have to.  But if you have any questions or concerns as we move towards the end of the year, please don’t hesitate to let us know!

1 “Trump intensifies trade war with threat of 30% tariffs on EU, Mexico,” Reuters, www.reuters.com/business/trump-announces-30-tariffs-eu-2025-07-12/
2 “Consumer Price Index Summary,” U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
3 “Trump says ‘maybe’ he’ll try to fire Fed chief,” CBS, www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-says-maybe-try-to-fire-federal-reserve-jerome-powell-interest-rates/

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Explaining the Recent News About Social Security

Written by Minich MacGregor Wealth Management on . Posted in News, Posts.

In recent months, you may have seen some unsettling headlines about the future of Social Security. That’s largely due to the latest annual Social Security and Medicare Trustees report, which gives projections on the finances of these programs and how well-funded they will be in the future.

Among other things, the report revealed that the trust funds that partially pay for Social Security will be depleted by 2034. That’s one year earlier than most experts predicted. When that happens — assuming nothing else changes in the meantime — the SSA will be forced to cut monthly benefits by an average of 23% to ensure everyone still receives payments.1

It’s a startling report, and an equally startling number. Both have many pre-retirees wondering what their benefits will look like, and whether they’ll be able to retire when they want. Or if they’ll be able to live the retirement lifestyle they want. Or if there will even be Social Security at all in the future!

As financial advisors, our job is to help people plan and work towards the future they want. So, we want to reassure you that, while this news certainly should add an extra wrinkle to your retirement planning, it does not have toderail it!

There are two reasons for this. The first is because the numbers in the report are based on the assumption that nothing will change between now and 2034 — and that’s unlikely to be the case.

To understand why this is, let’s look a little closer at what’s really going on. It’s important to understand that the recent news about Social Security refers specifically to its trust funds. These are two financial accounts that help pay for the cost of benefits. The funds inside these accounts are invested in interest-paying Treasury bonds which the SSA can sell when it needs to in order to continue paying for benefits.

For many years, the SSA collected more in taxes and other income than it paid out in benefits and expenses — a surplus that went into the two trust funds. But in 2021, Social Security was forced to begin tapping those reserves, which it has done ever since, and is set to continue doing into the next decade until the well runs dry in 2034.2

As important as those trust funds are, they only pay for a portion of the nation’s Social Security benefits. You see, most of the funding for Social Security comes from payroll taxes — and as those aren’t going away any time soon, Social Security as a program will not be going away, either.

Furthermore, there are several actions that Congress can take in the coming years to help shore up funding for Social Security. The most direct route would be a permanent increase to payroll taxes, but a more varied approach is probably more likely. Here are just a few steps Congress will likely look at:

  • Raising the Full Retirement age from 67 to either 68 or 69.
  • Subject all wages to the payroll tax rather than raise the tax itself. (Currently, only wages up to $176,100 are subject to the tax.3)
  • Reduce the growth of benefits for the very top earners.
  • Change how cost-of-living adjustments are indexed to inflation.

This is just a glimpse into the various possibilities. The point is that Congress has many potential tools at its disposal to ensure that retirees continue to receive the benefits they expect — and deserve — from their decades of hard work.

The other reason this doesn’t have to derail your planning? Because there’s time to prepare. You see, while Social Security is important, it’s just one arrow in the income quiver. Our team has the ability to help you calculate exactly how much you need to achieve the things you want, and where that income can and should come from. Our mission is to help clients work toward their goals and achieve the dreams and lifestyle that are most important to them. So, if you would ever like a second opinion on your income needs in retirement or would like extra help in making your dreams possible, please let us know. We would love to meet with you.

We expect we’ll provide more information on this topic over the coming years, but in the meantime, our advice is this: While the future of Social Security may be determined in Washington, your future stems from something much more powerful: The dreams you dream, and the plans we make.

Here at Minich MacGregor Wealth Management, we are very excited about our clients’ futures. Please let us know if we can ever be of any assistance in helping you with yours.

1 “A Summary of the 2025 Annual Reports,” Social Security Administration, https://www.ssa.gov/oact/trsum/
2 “Understanding the Social Security Trust Funds,” Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, https://www.cbpp.org/research/social-security/understanding-the-social-security-trust-funds-0
3 “Contribution and Benefit Base,” Social Security Administration, https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/cbb.html

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Chasing Squirrels image

Don’t Chase Squirrels: Stick to Your Plan

Written by Minich MacGregor Wealth Management on . Posted in Featured, Posts.

There are few activities more relaxing than a picnic in the park on a warm summer’s evening. But even under the glow of a setting sun, hearing the distant sounds of birds chirping and children laughing, we still can find it hard to turn off the “financial advisor” part of our brains.

Especially when we see a dog chasing squirrels.

We’re sure you’ve seen it before: When an excitable pooch sees a flash of movement in the corner of his left eye. He darts off, trying to catch the furry prey, only for it to scamper up a tree. Then, to the right, another squirrel. Or a bird, a rabbit, or a cat. Off he goes. But after ten minutes of frantic pursuit, swapping one target for another, the dog usually comes up empty-pawed.

What does this have to do with being a financial advisor? Well, because whenever we see this, our minds turn to how many investors often get caught up in chasing squirrels, too.

One of the most common questions we get from friends, acquaintances, and even potential clients is, “Is it time for me to put everything into X?” In other words, “is it time to change what I’m doing and do something totally different?”

Now, the thing about “X” is not only that it can be anything; it changes based on the season, or the most recent headlines, or the discourse on social media. Sometimes, X is the overall stock market, but just as often, it’s something like:

  • A specific company or industry that’s dominating the news
  • Cryptocurrency
  • Extremely complex financial products
  • Gold or some other type of commodity

Here’s the other thing about X: It’s not always bad. Sometimes, for some investors, anything from the list above could be a potentially goodinvestment. The problem is not X itself. The problem is that X is always changing. And when investors constantly seek to change with it, always bouncing from one hot trend to the next, they are, in effect, chasing squirrels.

All investors are vulnerable to this, even the most experienced. FOMO, or the “fear of missing out,” is a very real and powerful phenomenon. Nobody wants to feel left behind. Nobody wants to miss out on an opportunity.

Squirrel chasing can become especially prevalent when the markets are volatile or flat for long stretches. During times like this, many investors may seek to move their money into cash, bonds, or some other type of investment. They reason that they can skip the downside, wait patiently, and then come back in when the markets recover.

But this is squirrel chasing, too, and here’s why. Take a look at this chart.1

DecadePrice
return		Excluding best 10 days per decadeExcluding worst 10 days per decadeExcluding best/worst 10 days per decade
1970s17%-20%59%8%
1980s227%108%572%328%
1990s316%186%526%330%
2000s-24%-62%57%-21%
2010s190%95%351%203%

According to research, if investors were somehow able to skip the worst ten market trading days in a given decade, their total returns would be astronomically high. But there are two problems with this. The first problem is that if those same investors missed out on the ten best days each decade, their returns would be significantly lower than if they just stayed put. The second problem? The market’s best days often follow the worst. So even investors who somehow skip a bad day will probably end up missing out on a great day. And missing out on too many great days can be disastrous.

Here’s another way to look at it. According to more recent research, if a hypothetical investor put $10,000 investment into the S&P 500 between the beginning of 2005 and the end of 2024 and did nothing else, their total return would be 10.4%.2 If that same investor missed the market’s ten best days? The return would be 6.1%. If they missed the thirty best days? 3.1%. Forty? -0.6%. The data is clear: When it comes to investing in your long-term goals, there is only one dependable approach: Consistency. Sticking to a long-term plan is much more reliable than chasing squirrels.

The reason we’re saying all this is because not too long ago, investors had to endure some very bad days. Stocks were historically volatile in early April and even flirted with bear market territory. Many investors sold off, tried to time the market, or placed bets on some other type of investment. But by the end of June, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ had both risen to all-time highs.3

Of course, there will be volatile days in the future. There will be times when a new, enticing form of “X” dominates the headlines. And there will be times when we need to review your investments and determine if they still make sense for your situation. But when it comes to investing, the best question we get asked is this: “What’s the most important thing I can do to work toward my goals?”

The answer, of course, is to never, ever chase squirrels.

Have a great summer!

1 “Why investors should never try to time the stock market,” CNBC, www.cnbc.com/2021/03/24/this-chart-shows-why-investors-should-never-try-to-time-the-stock-market.html
2 “Selling out during market’s worst days can hurt you,” CNBC, www.cnbc.com/2025/04/07/selling-out-during-the-markets-worst-days-can-hurt-you-research.html
3 “America’s stock market rebound is complete as S&P 500, Nasdaq hit record highs,” CNN, www.cnn.com/2025/06/27/investing/stock-market-record-dow-sandp

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Join Our Newsletter – The Retirement Road

Written by Minich MacGregor Wealth Management on . Posted in Newsletter, Posts.

We send out our newsletter email monthly. We encourage you to join our newsletter to ensure you never miss an edition.

Please, subscribe now if you’re not receiving our newsletter in your inbox.

The latest issue of our newsletter, The Retirement Road, is now available!

This edition is devoted to one thing: Social Security. It covers the following topics:

🔮 The future of Social Security
💲 The ins and outs of Social Security taxes
⏲️ The timing of when to take Social Security benefits
🎙️ Our Retire on Purpose podcast: OBBB Standard Deduction Changes and Social Security

Click to view and subscribe to our
most recent monthly newsletter!

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Independence Day – Times That Try Men’s Souls

Written by Minich MacGregor Wealth Management on . Posted in Uncategorized.

Happy Independence Day!

It is common knowledge that in the summer of 1776, the Declaration of Independence was written, ratified, and published across the thirteen colonies — colonies that became a country. Today, nearly two-hundred and fifty years later, we still remember the words, “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal.”

What is less often remembered is how shaky the idea of American independence still was. By the time summer turned to winter, a British victory seemed almost inevitable. New York City had fallen. George Washington’s army was in full retreat, having recently lost 3,000 men. The Continental Congress had evacuated Philadelphia.

To many Americans, the idea of independence, of freedom, seemed like a lost cause.

But not to one American. For years, a man named Thomas Paine had written tract after tract, pamphlet after pamphlet, urging all Americans to stand up to British tyranny. That winter, he picked up his pen once again and wrote another set of words that deserve to be remembered, every Independence Day:

“These are the times that try men’s souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us: That the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph. What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly; it is dearness only that gives everything its value. Heaven knows how to put a proper price upon its goods, and it would be strange indeed if so celestial an article as FREEDOM should not be highly rated.”

Why do we think Paine’s words should be remembered? Every year we celebrate the Fourth of July by singing songs, lighting fireworks, cooking outdoors, and by spending time with family and friends. But some years, we feel like it’s easy to do these things almost automatically. It’s routine. Some years, we think it’s also easy to feel cynical about the holiday, because we watch the news and see the headlines and realize how far we still have to go as a country.

But never, ever, should the idea of freedom be taken for granted.

Never, ever should the concept of liberty be ignored.

Never, ever should we let the self-evident truth of equality be forgotten.

Paine wrote that “what we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly.” These days, it’s easy to esteem our rights and freedoms too lightly, because we are so used to them. But Independence Day is a chance to reflect, deeply and sincerely, how priceless these things are. How difficult they were to attain. How easy it would be to let them slip away.

It’s not always easy to feel patriotic. Times are hard, things are uncertain. There have been events in recent history that have tried our souls; there will certainly be others in the future. But in the winter of 1776, Paine’s words — part of a longer pamphlet called The American Crisis — helped re-energize the push for independence. They inspired the American people to recommit to the Declaration of Independence and everything it stood for.

Those same words can inspire us to do the same thing today.

We are so grateful for the country we live in. We are grateful for the Declaration. And we are grateful for Independence Day. It’s our chance to celebrate not just our country’s founding, but the reasons for its founding: That we are all endowed with certain unalienable Rights, among them being Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness.  

So, as the Fourth of July rolls around once again, as we gather around the grill and the fire pit, as we pay tribute to the flag, as the glint of fireworks reflects in our eyes, let us remember: There is nothing cheap or routine about what this holiday represents.

In fact, there are few things in this world more valuable.

On behalf of everyone here at Minich MacGregor Wealth Management, we wish you a very happy Independence Day!

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A Quick Primer on Power of Attorney

Written by Minich MacGregor Wealth Management on . Posted in Posts.

Do you know who would make decisions on your behalf if you became unable to do so?

Our latest guide breaks down the essentials of Power of Attorney (POA)—a legal tool that lets you authorize someone you trust to act on your behalf in financial, legal, or medical matters. 💼⚖️🏥

the essentials of Power of Attorney (POA)—a legal tool that lets you authorize someone you trust to act on your behalf in financial, legal, or medical matters
Decluttering Financial Corners image

Forgotten Corners of Financial Plans

Written by Minich MacGregor Wealth Management on . Posted in Uncategorized.

We think everyone has a corner of their house that desperately needs to be cleaned out and organized.  Maybe it’s in the garage, with all those miscellaneous cardboard boxes filled with books, baby clothes, and other mementos.  Maybe it’s a closet stuffed with coats, random household items, or all those unused rolls of birthday wrapping paper.  Or maybe it’s just a random crawlspace that’s hard to access and covered in cobwebs.  Either way, when you finally get around to organizing it, one of two things tends to happen:

  1. You find something you thought was lost or long gone…maybe even something you unnecessarily bought a replacement for! 
  2. You realize you’re hanging on to lots of stuff you don’t really need that’s just taking up space. 

Why are we talking about this?  Well, as you know, summer is a great time to clean out those forgotten corners of the house.  But as advisors, it doesn’t take much for us to take any activity and apply it to finances…which got us thinking about the forgotten corners in people’s financial plans. 

And boy are there often a lot of them!

You see, when it comes to financial planning, most people do a good job of focusing on the big stuff — the investments in our portfolio, where our income will come from in retirement, getting our taxes done — just like we’re usually good about keeping the well-trafficked areas of our home neat and tidy.  But there are often dusty, neglected corners in our financial lives that we either forget about or ignore.  And by doing so, we often pass up opportunities to improve our financial situation — sometimes even leaving money on the table. Or we take longer to reach our financial goals, because there is something taking up space or holding us back.  

Here are just a few common forgotten corners of financial plans:

Unproductive funds.  Like that jar full of coins and dollar bills that gets shoved to the back of a cupboard, it’s very easy to stick money into a savings account, certificate of deposit, or money market fund and then forget about it.  While there’s nothing wrong with using these types of vehicles from time to time, it can also be a very unproductive way to save money, because the cash is just sitting there, uncompounded and often earning very little in interest.  At the very least, it’s worth looking to see if there are other, newer options that pay out higher interest rates!

Out-of-date beneficiaries.  Many people often opt for a “set it and forget it” mentality when it comes to naming their beneficiaries.  But life is always changing and rarely static.  That’s why it’s always a good idea to review your beneficiaries every few years in case your family situation or personal wishes have changed. 

Mediocre insurance policies.  This is a common one.  Often, people will buy an insurance policy, such as whole life.  Then, never having to use it will let it sit and collect dust.  Meanwhile, they will continue to pay premiums on the policy, even if those premiums are overly high and the death benefit is absurdly low. 

Unreimbursed HSA receipts.  Many people who own Health Savings Accounts often forget to submit their health care expense receipts for reimbursement.  Fortunately, there’s no statute of limitations on these expenses, meaning you can submit your receipts for reimbursement even years after the fact!

Your parents’ finances.  Those with aging parents know that the day will come when they have to help manage their parents’ financial affairs.  Many people try to push off thinking about that day for as long as possible, for a variety of perfectly understandable reasons.  Unfortunately, these affairs can become a massive drain on you if left too long. 

Your credit score.  Some people check their credit score too much; others don’t check it nearly enough. But a good rule of thumb is to check your credit reports at least once per year.  After all, these reports aren’t just to help you get loans — they’re a handy early-warning system for fraud and identity theft. That’s why you should always scrutinize them for unexpected changes, hard inquiries from businesses, and other red flags. 

Unrealized goals.  The most sadly neglected corner of all.  Many people have private dreams and ambitions they never express to anyone.  Maybe they feel too grandiose.  Maybe they seem unrealistic.  Maybe they’re just extremely quirky!  Either way, a private dream usually stays just that — a dream.  But a spoken dream can be planned for, saved for…and ultimately, lived for. 

The reason we’re writing all this? Because, as financial advisors, our team makes it our mission to help people — not just with the big stuff in their financial house, but with their “forgotten corners”, too.  To that end, if you ever have any forgotten corners that need looking after, please give us a call at 518-499-4565 or shoot us an email at info@mmwealth.com.  We would be happy to sit down with you, review your plans, and discuss how to make sure your entire financial house is exactly the way you want it. 

Cleaning up the forgotten corners of your home is a great way to free up space, save money, and even gain peace of mind. The same is true with any forgotten corners in your financial life.  If you don’t have any, that’s great! But if you do, please think of us.  In the meantime, we hope you have a great summer!

Warren Buffett Wisdom image

Words of Wisdom from One of the Greats

Written by Minich MacGregor Wealth Management on . Posted in Posts.

On May 12, President Trump announced that tariffs on Chinese goods would be temporarily lowered from 145% to 30%.1 China, meanwhile, agreed to cut duties on American imports from 125% to 10%.1 While this isn’t really a trade deal, in that it doesn’t resolve the many issues and imbalances between the two countries, it does mark a cooling of tensions. That has investors breathing a sigh of relief…because it may mean the worst of this trade war is now behind us. As a result, the markets have largely recovered their losses from earlier in the quarter.

But as nice as it is to see some positive headlines for a change, we actually don’t think it’s the story long-term investors should be thinking about right now.

You see, just as there was no reason to panic when the sky was stormy, it’s equally wrong to overreact when the sun is shining. Both are short-term, emotion-driven reactions. Instead, investors should be reflecting on another bit of news that occurred this month: The announcement that Warren Buffett will step down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway by the end of the year.

“Why does that matter?” you’re probably thinking. Or even, “Who did what now?”

The ninety-four-year-old Buffett is one of the most famous and successful investors in the world. Over the past sixty years, shares in his company, Berkshire Hathaway, have risen 5,502,284%.2 Yes, you read that right, and no, it’s not a typo. That equates to a compounded annual return of 19.9%…nearly double what the S&P 500 has averaged over the same period.2

What’s the secret to his incredible track record? Well, Buffett himself would be the first to tell you that it’s really no secret at all. Furthermore, it’s not due to genius. Or luck. Or having a crystal ball.

It’s discipline.  

The discipline to always stick to his investment philosophy regardless of how the markets perform. The discipline to prioritize the long view over the short one. The discipline to leave emotion and ego out of his decision making.

How do we know this? Well, each year, Buffett writes a letter to his shareholders detailing the thoughts behind his decisions. Those letters are available for anyone to read. As a result, investors like us have a huge corpus of wisdom to draw from. So, with Buffett stepping down, and with the markets having been particularly volatile this year, now is a good time for us to ponder the example Buffett set as a patient, diligent, long-term investor. That way, we can better apply those same qualities to ourselves.

With that in mind, here are five lessons to learn from Buffett we can apply whenever markets are volatile.

#1: Leave emotion out of investing. Buffett learned this lesson early on when he first bought stock in a failing textile company called… Berkshire Hathaway. From his research, Buffett discovered that every time the company closed one of their mills, they would use the money to repurchase their own stock. His plan was to buy some of that stock, and when the company sold another mill, sell his shares back for a small profit.

At first, everything went according to plan. After Berkshire closed another plant, Buffett met with the CEO, who offered to buy the stock back at $11.50 per share. Buffett agreed. But a few weeks later, when the actual offer came in the mail, Buffett saw the price was only $11.375 per share. Despite their verbal agreement, the CEO had sneakily decided to pay an eighth less than promised.

It was no big deal in the grand scheme of things, but it made Buffett angry. So, instead of selling, he decided to buy more shares. And more, and more. So many more, in fact, that he soon became the majority owner of Berkshire Hathaway…and was able to fire the CEO who tried to stiff him.

Buffett described it in his 2014 letter as “a monumentally stupid decision.”3 You see, all he had to show for it was a failing company that was now entirely his responsibility. While he eventually turned Berkshire into a corporate powerhouse, the textile business was always a drag on profits. (He finally shut it down twenty years later.) In fact, Buffett estimated that the decision to buy Berkshire, rather than use the money in a wiser and less emotional way, ultimately cost him $200 billion in compounded returns.

The lesson: Never make emotional investment decisions. Instead, always remember that:

#2: “Price is what you pay; value is what you get.” Buffett dropped this line in his 2008 letter to shareholders. Back then, the stock market was in a freefall. Many of the companies that Buffett owned dropped dramatically in price, but as he wrote in his letter, “This does not bother me. Indeed, [I] enjoy such price declines if we have funds available to increase our positions. Long ago, Ben Graham [one of Buffett’s teachers] taught me that ‘Price is what you pay; value is what you get.’ Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down.” 4

This describes Buffett’s investment philosophy in a nutshell. Instead of focusing solely on the cost of what he’s buying, he instead focuses on the quality. In 2008, he knew the companies he owned were still strong even if they had gone down in price. So, rather than dump them, he instead focused on buying more of them…while also looking for other strong companies being sold at a discount. 

As investors, it’s so easy to get caught up in price. Easy to chase after whatever stock is rising fastest; easy to run away when the markets are in the doldrums. But stock price alone does not tell you how valuable something is — only what people are willing to pay for it in a given moment.

To illustrate what we mean, think about the three most valuable things you own. (Not counting your house.) What would you most want to save if there were a flood or fire? They probably aren’t your most expensive possessions, are they? Before you ever save the big-screen TV or even the car in your garage, you’d probably reach instead for the family photo album. That heirloom your grandmother left you. Or maybe even the $500 guitar you saved up for in high school that’s been with you ever since.

Buffett follows the same principle with business. Instead of concentrating on short-term prices, he focuses on long-term value. The stocks and companies he’ll still want to own in twenty, forty, or even sixty years. That matters, because for Buffett…

#3: “Our favorite holding period is forever.” Buffett said this in his 1988 letter to shareholders.5 We like this quote, because when you think about it, the ideal investment really is something you’d want to hold onto forever, isn’t it? It’s why we pass on our home and our most prized possessions to our children after we’re gone. We want the next generation to derive as much value from them as we did. Here at Minich MacGregor Wealth Management, we try to take a similar approach with your portfolio. While there are, of course, times when we need to sell certain holdings to meet your income needs, our goal is to help you invest for a period far lengthier than the worst bear market or even the longest bull. We invest for your entire lifetime…and maybe even beyond.

#4: Patience always beats prognostication. Investing, when you think about it, is a perpetual struggle between the short-term and the long-term. There are always so many headlines, events, wants, and fears demanding our attention. Because of that, many investors spend an inordinate amount of time trying to figure out “what’s going to happen next.” What direction will the stock market go? How will the economy perform? What will Washington do? As a result, there is an entire industry of forecasters, prognosticators, and fortune-tellers who try to convince investors to make short-term decisions based on short-term predictions.

But nobody can predict the future. We can make educated assumptions, and of course, lucky guesses. When it comes to investing, there’s only one thing we know: That over time, the markets have historically gone up. As a result, patience is often the only requirement. All other ingredients are optional. That’s why, whenever the markets move sharply in one direction or the other, We think it’s handy to remember these classic Buffett gems:

“Our stay-put behavior reflects our view that the stock market serves as a relocation center at which money is moved from the impatient to the patient.” 6 — 1991 letter to shareholders

“Anything can happen anytime in markets. Market forecasters will fill your ear but will never fill your wallet.” 3 — 2014 letter to shareholders

“Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”7 — 2004 letter to shareholders

#5: “Someone is sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree long ago.”

This, we think, is the greatest lesson of them all.

Can you remember how the markets performed in 1988? 1991? 2014? Probably not — We’d have to look it up ourselves. Similarly, you probably can’t remember what the weather was like in any given month those years, or even what the hit song was.

But you probably can see how far you’ve come since then.

This is the essence of investing. Headlines, whether good or bad, are temporary. Volatility, up or down, is temporary. That is why we always prioritize the permanent over the transient. Why we take the long view over the short one. So, whenever volatility strikes, whenever the headlines get confusing, remember Warren Buffett’s example. Today’s storms are just moisture for tomorrow’s trees — in whose shade we hope to enjoy for generations to come.

1 “US and China agree to roll back tariffs in major trade breakthrough,” CNN, https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/12/business/us-china-trade-deal-announcement-intl-hnk
2 “Warren Buffett’s return tally after 60 years,” CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/05/warren-buffetts-return-tally-after-60-years-5502284percent.html
3 “Berkshire Hathaway 2014 letter,” https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2014ltr.pdf
4 “Berkshire Hathaway 2008 letter,” https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2008ltr.pdf
5 “Berkshire Hathaway 1988 letter,” https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1988.html
6 “Berkshire Hathaway 1991 letter,” https://berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1991.html
7 “Berkshire Hathaway 2004 letter,” https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2004ltr.pdf

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A Quick Primer on Trusts

Written by Minich MacGregor Wealth Management on . Posted in Uncategorized.

Trusts Infographic

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war time rules golf

Rules for Getting Through Market Volatility

Written by Minich MacGregor Wealth Management on . Posted in News, Posts.

Like getting the flu or visiting the DMV, market volatility is one of those facts of life that never gets more pleasant no matter how many times we experience it.  As you know, the markets have been very volatile of late.  In large part this has been spurred on by the fears and uncertainty surrounding the tariffs that have been announced or discussed by the White House. This has many investors asking, “What should I do?” 

As financial advisors, we hear that question a lot.  While thinking about how to answer it, we came across an interesting story that illustrates exactly what investors should do.  It’s called: 

The War-Time Rules for the Richmond Golf Club

The year was 1940.  World War II was well under way, with France having fallen to Germany.  When the Germans began bombing England in preparation for an invasion, some of the bombs fell on the Richmond Golf Club in southwest London.      

Undaunted, the golfers, many of whom were veterans of World War I, devised a set of “war-time rules” to ensure they could keep playing even during a bombing raid.1  Decades later, the rules were rediscovered.  They are still as incredible now as they were then…and as amusing!   

  1. Players are asked to collect bomb and shrapnel splinters to save these causing damage to the mowing machines.
  2. During gunfire or while bombs are falling, players may take cover without penalty for ceasing play.
  3. The positions of known delayed action bombs are marked by red flags at a reasonably — but not guaranteed — safe distance therefrom.
  4. Shrapnel on the fairways or bunkers within a club’s length of a ball may be moved without penalty. No penalty shall be incurred if a ball is thereby caused to move accidentally.
  5. A ball moved by enemy action may be replaced, or if completely destroyed, a new ball may be dropped not nearer the hole without penalty.
  6. A ball lying in a crater may be lifted and dropped not nearer the hole without penalty. 
  7. A player whose stroke is affected by the simultaneous explosion of a bomb may play another ball from the same place.  Penalty, one stroke.

We love this story because it illustrates a very important point: Whenever we face uncertainty in life, whenever we’re not sure what to do, it’s valuable to have rules in place that can help guide us and stabilize us.  From the Golden Rule to the Fire Rule (stop, drop, and roll), rules make things easy to remember, easy to understand, and easier to get through.  So, with those golfers’ plucky example in mind, here are our rules for getting through even the roughest stretches of market volatility:

1. Continue to save and contribute to your retirement accounts.  Market volatility often means lower prices. That both lowers the financial barrier to invest and makes it easier to buy good companies.  It’s like shopping for Christmas lights after the holidays are over — the prices are lower, but the product is the same.  Furthermore, by continuing to save and invest even during volatility, you are positioning yourself for the rebound.  Remember, it’s time in the markets, not timing the markets, that matters. 

2. Examine your current risk level.  That said, there’s nothing wrong with looking at your portfolio and saying, “You know what?  Maybe I don’t want to deal with this level of risk.”  Many investors end up becoming overexuberant and taking on too much risk during bull markets, and changes in your life sometimes require a change in your investment strategy.  After all, even the Richmond Club golfers took cover when the bombs were dropping. 

3. Invert the problem.  One of the great investors, Charlie Munger, used to talk about how inverting his thinking was his most reliable form of decision-making.  In other words, during a time when other investors are trying to figure out the “smart thing to do,” replace that with, “What is the foolish thing to do?”  Or “What will I most regret doing in five or ten years?”  It’s often much easier to figure out what not to do than what you should do.  By starting there and working backwards, you will arrive at the correct decision — which is often much simpler than it first appeared! 

4. Focus on a different aspect of financial planning.  There is more to reaching your financial goals than investing.  When the markets are turbulent and the headlines are scary, there’s a simple solution: Stop thinking about them!  Instead, focus on something else that will help get you closer to your goals.  Look at your cash flow.  Update your will.  Start a rainy-day fund.  Get your tax planning done.  Concentrate on increasing your income.  There are lots of possibilities, all of which are far more important in the long-term than stressing about markets in the short-term.         

5. Commit to understanding why the markets are behaving the way they are.  Most people don’t spend their days scrutinizing the markets.  As a result, volatility can feel particularly stressful for investors who don’t immediately have an explanation for it.  But Marie Curie once said: “Nothing in life is to be feared, it is only to be understood.”  In my experience, when we take the time to understand the cause of volatility, the volatility itself becomes less unsettling.  Understanding brings clarity, and clarity brings confidence — that all volatility, no matter the cause, is temporary. 

The British were famous for their “keep calm and carry on” attitude during World War II.  The “War-Time Rules for the Richmond Golf Club” is a perfect example of this.  The rules they created helped those golfers make sense of a scary situation by continuing to do what they loved.  We can apply that principle to every area of our lives — including our finances and including the markets. 

One last point.  Sometimes, the media will try to get us to choose fear over rules like these.  When that happens, remember this.  During the War, the Richmond rules became famous even in Germany.  None other than Joseph Goebbels heard about them and publicly declared, “The English snobs try to impress the people with a kind of pretended heroism.  They can do so without danger, because, as everyone knows, the German Air Force devotes itself only to the destruction of military targets.”1 

Still, in the very next raid, German planes bombed the golf club’s laundry facilities. 

The members continued playing.    

1 “Our Famous War Time Rules,” The Richmond Golf Club, https://therichmondgolfclub.com/war-time-rules

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