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2024 Year in Review: Lessons Learned & Navigating Uncertainty in Investing

Written by Minich MacGregor Wealth Management on . Posted in Featured, News, Posts, Uncategorized.

Every January, we here at Minich MacGregor Wealth Management look back on the year that was. What were the highlights? What were the “lowlights”? What events will we remember? Most importantly, what did we learn? Then, we send a Year in Review message to our clients that encapsulates it all. We thought you might be interested in seeing it this year, too.

When we ponder the last twelve months, the theme of 2024, to us, is the importance of being able to operate under uncertainty. Here’s what we mean.

When the year began, there were several question marks hanging over the economy, the markets, and the nation as a whole. Each question mark, on its own, was important. Putting them all together made it extremely difficult for investors to know how the year would play out, which way the markets would go, or how the economic climate would evolve. In other words, there was a great deal of uncertainty. Let’s go through a few of the most important question marks one by one.

Which Way Will Inflation Go? The New Year kicked off with a positive outlook. Consumer prices had fallen significantly toward the end of 2023, and the expectation was that the trend would continue. But inflation rarely moves in a straight line. The inflation rate hovered around 3.1% in January, but by March, it was back to 3.5%.1  Inflation, it seemed, was still “sticky.”

This wasn’t pleasant news for the markets, because it dashed any hope that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in the spring. And the longer interest rates remained elevated, the more people worried about the possibility of a recession. As a result, the markets experienced a short-but-sharp dip in April.2 

Fortunately, the angst was short-lived. Over the next six months, inflation fell to 2.4% — the lowest since February of 2021, and awfully close to the Fed’s goal of 2%.1  That led to a long-awaited event in September, when we finally got some clarity on the second question mark:             

When Will Interest Rates Start to Come Down? Interest rates — the Fed’s primary tool for combatting inflation — began the year at 5.3%.3  That was the highest they’d been since early 2001. But while higher rates are effective at bringing prices down, the reason is because they cool down the economy. But if rates remain too high for too long, that coolant can ice over — and freeze the economy with it. Because of this, and because lower rates tend to juice the stock market, investors had been waiting with bated breath for any signs that rates were on the verge of coming down. Finally, in September, it happened: The Fed announced the first rate cut. Another one followed in October, and a third in November. By the end of the year, rates were down to 4.6%.3  That’s still historically elevated, but it’s a step in the right direction. That’s because we were also getting a positive answer to the third question mark:

Will the Economy Grow, or Slow? Predicting a recession has become something of a parlor game for economists. It’s not hard to understand why. Historically, raising rates to pull down inflation has almost always led to a recession. It’s called a hard landing, and it happens when prices come down so much that most businesses experience a major drop in revenue, causing them to lay off workers. Since unemployed people tend to spend less money, the economy contracts and enters a recession.

Despite years of dire predictions, this worst-case scenario never came true. Our gross domestic product, which measures our country’s total economic activity in a given period, grew by 1.6% in the first quarter, 3% in the second, and 3.1% in the third.4  As of this writing, we don’t have firm data for Q4 yet, but it’s estimated to be around the same.5 

Against all odds, for now, it seems we’ve achieved something rare: A soft landing.  

What About the Election? The fourth question mark was perhaps the least important as far as the markets were concerned, but it was also the one that got the most headlines: The November election.

Elections always create uncertainty, of course. Who will our next president be? What policies will they enact? How will they help or hurt my personal situation? History suggests that it doesn’t really matter which party controls Washington as far as the markets are concerned, but despite that, we do often see volatility leading up to the election itself. But that didn’t really happen this year. Other than a slight, brief dip at the very end of October, there was not a lot of volatility before the election, nor right after.6  Which brings us to our final question mark:

How Will the Markets React to All This? For investors, this was the biggest question mark of all. It’s always the biggest question mark of all. How would the markets react to the roller coaster of inflation? How would they react if it took longer for interest rates to drop? What about the election?

Well, now we know the answer to that, too. The S&P rose over 23% for 2024.7  When you couple that with the 24% gain we saw in 2023, it’s the best two-year performance in the index since 1997-98. The Dow, meanwhile, gained nearly 13%, and the NASDAQ over 28%.7   

Because we are looking back, because we know the answers to all these questions, it’s hard to remember the uncertainty that crept up at different points in the year. Nevertheless, uncertainty existed — and the investors who could handle it, benefited. The ones who could not, did not. We’re very happy to say that our clients belonged to the first group, but we know many people who didn’t.

Throughout the year, especially early on, we would often hear acquaintances of ours say things like, “I’m not getting into the markets until after the election.” Or “I’ll wait until interest rates come down to make a decision.” “Inflation is still too high for me, so I’ll think about it next year,” also popped up from time to time. In other words, many investors find it difficult to operate under uncertainty. Any question mark causes them to defer decisions and delay actions. Uncertainty can cause people to shut down, circle the wagons, and “turtle up.” As a result, two things happen:

  1. They miss out on the kind of year we just experienced in the markets.
  2. They don’t move forward to their financial goals.

Uncertainty is a fact of life, and as investors, we will always be dealing with question marks. Some years, there are more question marks than others, and that can certainly make things stressful. Of course, when we’re faced with uncertainty, it’s always good to slow down, take our time, and consider our options carefully. But it’s not good to become stagnant, hesitant, or fearful. It’s never good to procrastinate.  

Scientists have often held that one of the hallmarks of intelligence is the ability to make judgments under uncertainty. The ability to plan ahead even with limited information, and then adjust your plan as you learn. This is something that our team strives to do every day for our clients. We consider what we know and what we don’t. We try to identify possible outcomes and events, not to predict which will happen — which is impossible — but to prepare for as many as we can. From there, we determine what choices must be made now, which choices can be made now, and which should not be made now. Finally, we review the options that come with each choice, and which work best for each client based on their specific goals, needs, and situation.

It doesn’t mean everything will always go the way we want it to. It doesn’t mean we won’t occasionally experience setbacks. It does allow us to operate under uncertainty…which means we can always help our clients continue to work towards their dreams and financial goals.     

That’s what financial planning is all about. And that, to us, is the lesson to take from 2024.

Of course, there will be question marks in 2025, too. Here are just a few:

  • Is the inflation roller coaster truly over? Consumer prices ticked back to 2.6% in November, and there are some indications that they may rise higher still in the coming months.
  • President-elect Trump has promised to levy across-the-board tariffs against China and many other countries. What effect will those tariffs have on the economy, especially inflation?   
  • Will interest rates continue to fall, or will they remain where they are for a while? In its most recent statement, the Fed projected only two cuts for 2025.8 
  • Much of the market’s performance over the last two years has been generated by tech companies, especially those investing in AI. However, to date, many AI companies are valued far above what they are actually earning. Will that change in 2025? Will the hype continue?     

Here at Minich MacGregor Wealth Management, we’ll continue to study these issues…and even though you are not currently a client, we will update you as we get answers. But while there will always be question marks, we remain confident in our direction and in our ability to keep moving forward — whether the horizon is clear or blurry, the sky blue or gray.

So, that’s 2024! We hope it was a wonderful year. On behalf of our entire team, we look forward to making 2025 even better. As always, please let us know if you have any questions, or if we can ever help you and your family the way we help our client families. Have a Happy New Year!

Sources:
1 “12-month percentage change, Consumer Price Index,” U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm
2 “U.S. Equities April 2024,” S&P Dow Jones Indices, https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/commentary/market-attributes-us-equities-202404.pdf
3 “Federal Funds Effective Rate,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
4 “Gross Domestic Product,” U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
5 “GDP Now,” Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow/archives
6 “S&P 500 ends 5-month rally with October downturn,” S&P Global, https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/s-p-500-ends-5-month-rally-with-october-downturn-86066097
7 “S&P 500 posts 23% gain for 2024,” CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/30/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
8 “Fed cuts key interest rate but signals elevated inflation is likely to persist,” https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/federal-reserve-interest-rate-cut-december-2024-much-economy-rcna184586

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Picture of a Melting Snowman

Michelangelo’s Snowman

Written by Minich MacGregor Wealth Management on . Posted in Uncategorized.

One cold January morning in 1494, the citizens of Florence, Italy woke up to an extremely rare sight: Their city was covered in snow. 

Snow is uncommon in Florence, and this was no mere coating of powdered sugar.  There was so much snow that kids today would probably grab their sleds and hightail it to the nearest hill.  So much snow that trucks with plows would be required just to keep the roads clear. 

It’s impossible to know how most Florentines reacted to their new winter wonderland, but we do know what one person thought.  When Piero de Medici, perhaps the wealthiest and most powerful man in Florence looked out that morning and saw his courtyard covered in snow, he decided to commission an artist. The artist in question was young, barely nineteen, with a permanently disfigured nose.  But his name would become famous throughout Europe, and the world has never forgotten it.   

His name was Michelangelo, and his task was as surprising as it was simple: Build a snowman.

Given the sculptures Michelangelo produced later in life, it’s reasonable to assume that his was the most beautiful snowman ever made.  (At least one other artist wrote that it was very beautiful.)  But we have no way of knowing exactly what Michelangelo’s snowman looked like…because it melted. 

It’s ironic to think of a great work of art so impermanent that it could literally melt.  It almost seems like a waste.  Why go to all that trouble creating something beautiful, knowing it will never last?  But we don’t think it was a waste.  In fact, when we ponder the story of Michelangelo’s snowman, we think there’s something meaningful we can take from it. 

Every January, many of us set New Year’s resolutions.  We make promises to ourselves about the goals we want to achieve and the ways we want to improve.  Go there, become this, do that.  But we all know that resolutions don’t always last.  Often, we may follow through on them for a month, or a season, or even a year…until life interrupts us.  When that happens, we often move onto other things, leaving our resolutions to melt away. 

But that doesn’t mean our resolutions were a waste.  It doesn’t mean the work we put into them was worthless. 

Think what often happens even when we fall short of our resolutions:

  1. Sometimes, we return to our resolution months or years later, now armed with more knowledge and the experience gained from our first attempt.  Everything we need, in other words, to actually achieve it this time.
  2. Sometimes, we may not achieve everything we set out to do, and yet our lives still become better for the attempt.  A person may not lose the 20 pounds they wanted, but the 10 pounds they did lose helped their blood pressure drop and their knees feel better.  A person may not quite learn how to speak French, but in the process, discover they have a real love and ability to cook French food.
  3. Sometimes, even half-finished resolutions may lead us to the things we are truly meant to do.  Maybe you won’t “write in your journal every day” like you wanted, but instead learn you have a flair for writing and decide to write something else.  Maybe you won’t get that promotion you wanted…but instead get a different job that you end up loving more than you ever thought possible. 

Whenever we set goals and resolutions, whenever we lift our eyes up and aim just a little higher, we are shaping our lives into our own works of art.  Sometimes they don’t last – but the beauty is not in their permanence.  It’s in the ways they enrich our lives. The ways they help us get just a little closer to where we want to go…and become just a little more like who we want to be. 

Michelangelo’s snowman melted.  We don’t know what it looked like.  But we do know that he created something beautiful.  Something that enriched both his life and the lives of those who saw it, even if only for a little while. 

And we know something else, too.  We know what came after. 

For just ten years later, Michelangelo created a new sculpture, one that we can hope will never be lost to temperature or time.

It was the statue of David.

As we enter a New Year, we wish you best of luck with your goals and resolutions.  Please let us know if there is ever any way we can help you achieve them.  But most of all, we wish you joy in the journey.  May your resolutions get you ever closer to where you want to go…and become stepping stones and practice runs for whatever works of art you’re destined to create.

Happy New Year!   

Winter Tips to Save Your Home and Wallet

Written by Minich MacGregor Wealth Management on . Posted in Uncategorized.

Winter may bring snowy landscapes and cozy evenings by the fire, but it can also bring unexpected challenges for your home and budget. To make this season more about enjoying the cold and less about battling it, follow these practical tips to protect your space, save energy, and stay comfortable.

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Questions You Were Afraid to Ask # 15

Written by Minich MacGregor Wealth Management on . Posted in Uncategorized.

The only bad question is the one left unasked. That’s the premise behind many of our posts. Each covers a different investment-related question that many people have but are afraid to ask.

In recent posts, we’ve been breaking down some of the more common bits of financial jargon that you are likely to hear in the media.  In this message, let’s look at: 

Questions You Were Afraid to Ask #15:
What’s the difference between Large Cap, Mid Cap, and Small Cap stocks?

If you’ve ever researched a stock or listened to talking heads in the media, you’ve probably heard terms like “large cap stocks” before.  You may also have seen these terms when reviewing your 401(k).  If so, you’ve probably wondered what the word “cap” even means. 

A stock’s “cap” refers to its market capitalization.  This is the total market value of a company’s available stock shares.  In essence, it is a quick and easy way to determine how valuable the market perceives a company to be. 

To determine a company’s market cap, investors look at all the shares the company has made available and then multiply that number by its current stock price.  For example, let’s say the ACME Corporation has twenty-five million available shares with a current stock price of $50.  Twenty-five million multiplied by fifty is 1,250,000,000, so ACME’s market cap is $1.25 billion.

Now, this number doesn’t mean anything on its own.  It’s when you compare it to other companies that distinctions can be made.  That’s where the terms large, mid, and small come in.

There is no single agreed-upon definition of what makes a company large-cap versus mid-cap, or mid-cap versus small-cap.  But generally speaking, many investors break down these categories like this:

  • Large-Cap: Market value over $10 billion
  • Mid-Cap: Market value over $2 billion
  • Small-Cap: Market value over $250 million

So, in our example, ACME Corporation would be classified as a small-cap company. 

Some investors will make further distinctions.  For instance, you may sometimes see the term mega-cap, which is for companies with a market value over $200 billion.  At the other end of the spectrum, micro-cap refers to companies with a market value of less than $250 million. 

When people think about the stock market, they often think in terms of a specific index, like the S&P 500.  But different indexes often only contain companies above a specific size.  For example, the S&P 500 contains the five hundred biggest companies in the overall market. That means it only includes mega- and large-cap stocks.  Another popular index, the Russell 2000, contains only small-cap companies. 

One reason market cap matters is because it gives you more information about a stock than you can get just from its price.  For example, imagine two companies that each have a stock price of $75.  The first company has fifty million total shares available.  The second company has a billion shares.  That meansthe first company has a total market capitalization of $375 million.  The second company’s market cap, on the other hand, is $75 billion.  So, despite having the same price per share, the first company is a small-cap stock, and the second is a large-cap stock. 

Why is this important for investors to know? Because a stock’s cap can dramatically affect both its potential risk and potential reward. 

Generally speaking, large-cap stock companies are not going to grow as fast as a small-cap stock company can.  That’s because the former simply doesn’t have as much room for growth.  Large-cap companies tend to be older and more well-established. As a result, any future growth will likely be slow and steady rather than fast and explosive.  Small-cap companies, on the other hand, still have the potential to become large-cap companies in the future.  That means their potential for growth — and thus, reward — is greater. 

That said, large-cap companies have also tended to be more stable.  They have stronger financial situations, greater brand recognition, and more revenue.  That makes their stock price less vulnerable to market volatility.  Meanwhile, small-cap companies, even if they’re growing fast, may not technically be making any profit at all.  Their financial situation may be much weaker. That makes them much more vulnerable…and much riskier for investors. 

Of course, these are all just generalizations.  Large-cap companies can sometimes experience fast growth or even fail, of course.   Mid- and small-caps can thrive for years.  But as a general rule, there is an inverse relationship between a stock’s capitalization and both its risk and return.  Understanding that relationship is critical to making good investment decisions! 

So, that’s market capitalization in a nutshell.  Next time, we’ll look at a related bit of jargon: Blue chip stocks versus penny stocks.  Until next time! 

1 “Market Cap Explained,” FINRA, https://www.finra.org/investors/insights/market-cap

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Happy Thanksgiving image

Happy Thanksgiving

Written by Minich MacGregor Wealth Management on . Posted in Uncategorized.

🦃🍂 HAPPY THANKSGIVING 🍂🦃

Today, we pause to reflect on all we’re grateful for—family, friends, and the moments that bring us together.

Here at Minich MacGregor Wealth Management, we are thankful for our relationships with our clients and for the opportunity to help you however we can.

We wish you a day filled with love, laughter, and, of course, delicious food!