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Author: Minich MacGregor Wealth Management

Your Q2 Financial Checklist

Did you know that trees have checklists?

Okay, so maybe they’re not written checklists attached to a clipboard, but it’s true all the same.  Every year, when winter slowly makes way for spring, there are several criteria that trees must “check off” before they start to bloom. 

The first item on their checklist is more sunlight.  Trees can detect when spring is near because the days get longer, meaning they receive more sunlight each day.  Sunlight, of course, is what trees store and convert into sugars via photosynthesis. 

The second is moisture.  This isn’t a problem in most parts of the country, where spring rains or melting snow contribute plenty of water.  But if the area is going through, say, a massive drought, then trees will often delay blooming.

Finally, trees wait for the temperature to rise.  Even if the day is longer, trees know that a sudden blizzard or even overnight frost can wreak damage to any new growth.  So, they wait until the average temperature is high enough before dazzling the world with a riot of color.

Why are we telling you all this?  As financial advisors, we love checklists, too.  After all, if they’re good enough for nature, they’re good enough for us!  And with spring – and a new quarter –arriving, it’s time for us to make like a tree and leaf through our own checklist.  These are the steps we must take to keep growing closer to our financial goals. 

The tasks on this list are all things that should be taken care of in the second quarter.  Don’t worry –they’re not difficult!  In fact, some may be completed already.  But each is important in its own way. If you need help or have questions about any of these, please let us know.  In the meantime, we hope you have a great second quarter…and a wonderful spring!


Q2 Financial Checklist for 2024
Tip: Print this out and stick it on the fridge or somewhere else it will be seen.  That way, you can check off the items one by one as you complete them! 

Review All Your Holdings

These days, many investors adopt a “set it and forget it” mentality with their investment portfolio(s).  That’s certainly better than stressing about the markets daily, but it’s critical to review your holdings at least once or twice a year to make sure everything is in order.  Is your allocation still where it should be?  Is your portfolio still in line with your tolerance for risk?  Are your holdings providing the kind of return you need to reach your financial goals?  Do you understand everything you own and why?

If the answer to any of these questions is “No” or “I don’t know,” then it’s time for us to sit down and take a closer look at things.  And by the way, when we say, “review your holdings,” we mean all of them.  That includes any and all institutions you do business with!  (Many investors sometimes forget where all their assets are kept and thus fail to review them. Or they review them separately and don’t ensure they work together.)     

Review Your Exposure to Volatility

At the same time, it’s important to be sure that you are prepared to weather any market volatility that may happen in 2024.  As you know, we’re in an election year.  We’re also still contending with higher-than-normal inflation and much higher-than-normal interest rates.  All these factors can contribute to increased turbulence in the markets.  For that reason, we need to be sure you are not overexposed to certain sectors that may be particularly vulnerable to volatility this year.  If you would like a second opinion on investments held in other places, we would be happy to provide one. 

Determine Your Insurance Needs

In many parts of the country, the return of spring means the imminent return of storm season.  It also means new opportunities for outdoor recreation.  While it may be unlikely, that means an increased chance of both property damage and/or personal injury.  While you don’t need to go out and start buying more insurance, this is the time when you should review where you are covered and where you are not.  That way, you can determine if there are any critical gaps that are simply too risky to leave unfilled.  For example, while most mortgage lenders require customers to have home insurance, few people have property insurance.  For those with property in areas where major storms, wildfires, hurricanes, or tornados are common, that’s a type of gap that really should be filled.  

Budget For Your Summer Vacation Plans

This one’s more fun.  If you have plans for a big cross-country road trip, a long-awaited tour of Europe, or family fun in Disneyland, take time now to set a budget, purchase tickets, and make reservations.  It can save you a lot of money if you do it early.  Money you can use for further adventures in the future! 

Decide What to Do with Your Tax Refund

If you’re getting a tax refund this year, think about how you want to use it.  Approximately 1/3rd of Americans use their refund to pay off debts; others stick it in a savings account.1  One underrated and oft-underused option: Invest it instead.  It can help you catch up on saving for retirement, pay for a loved one’s college expenses, or enable you to achieve one of your long-term goals even sooner. 

Get Your Tax Planning Done Early

Finally, once your taxes are filed and the rush is behind you, consider pivoting from tax preparation to tax planning.  While tax prep is the process of filing taxes you already owe, tax planning is the process of minimizing taxes you will owe in the future.  By doing this early, you can potentially reap great rewards in the near future.   

1 “Over a third of Americans plan to spend their tax refund right away, mostly to pay bills,” CNBC, www.cnbc.com/2022/04/02/mostamericans-plan-to-spend-tax-refund-on-essentials.html

Last Minute Reminders for Tax Planning

We’re well into tax season now!  Of course, some people have already finished filing their returns by this point.  If you haven’t yet, here are a few simple, last-minute tips to remember. 

1. Have all your necessary documents and information in place before you start

Have you ever heard the phrase mise en place?  It’s a French term professional chefs use that means “putting in place.”  You see, a good chef ensures that all ingredients and equipment are set up and in place before they start cooking.  This type of mindset is invaluable.  It reduces mistakes and accidents and makes the entire cooking process less stressful! 

You can practice mise en place with your taxes as well.  Before you do anything else, gather every receipt, invoice, bit of paper, and piece of data that may relate to your taxes.  Have it organized and close to hand.  That way, when you start the actual filing process, you never have to interrupt your progress to look for something.  Nor will you be likely to forget anything important.  It just makes the entire affair easier, quicker, and less stressful. 

Specifically, the IRS recommends that you have the following information before filing:

  • Social Security numbers for everyone listed on your tax return.
  • Bank account and routing numbers.
  • Any W-2s, 1099s, 1098s, health insurance statements, and records of digital asset transactions.  (Think bitcoin, NFTs, and things like that.)
  • Any notices from the IRS citing an amount received for a certain tax deduction or credit. 

2. Remember to report all types of income

In the rush to file, it can be easy to forget all the various ways you generated income last year.  These days, many people have second jobs and side hustles that bring in money.  Then there’s investment income, property, and even yard sales to consider!  So, as you file, remember to report all income from:

  • Any goods or items you have sold, whether online or in person
  • Investments
  • Part-time, seasonal, or gig work
  • Rental properties
  • Self-employment or other business activities
  • Foreign accounts and assets

This will help you avoid any notices or bills from the IRS – something no one wants! 

3.  Contribute to your IRA if you haven’t already done so. 

If you haven’t yet contributed to your IRA in the last year, there’s still time to do so.  The deadline to contribute for the 2023 tax year is April 15, 2024.  (Remember that if you do decide to contribute, you must designate the year you are contributing for.)  For 2023, the maximum amount you can contribute is $6,500 if you are under 50, and $7,500 if you are age 50 or older.1

4. Get a written acknowledgment from charitable organizations you have contributed to. 

If you gifted $250 or more to any charitable organization last year, the recipient must send you a written acknowledgment of the gift upon request.2  This should also state whether the recipient provided any goods or services in consideration for the contribution.  (If so, the acknowledgment must include a good faith estimate of the value of those goods or services.) 

5. Tell the IRS to direct deposit your refund to get it faster. 

These days, eight out of ten taxpayers get their refunds via direct deposit.3  There’s a good reason for this – it’s the fastest and most secure method available!  The IRS actually issues nine out of ten refunds in less than 21 days, but getting your refund via check adds unnecessary time to the process.3 

Many people are unaware they can have their refund directly deposited into as many as three different accounts.  That’s handy because it can help you allocate the funds in a more targeted way.  For example, let’s say you want to use part of your refund to pay off a debt, another part to go into your rainy-day fund, and the leftovers to go on vacation.  With direct deposit, you can ensure all three boxes get checked.  Just have the refund portioned into the appropriate accounts! 

Finally, you can track the status of your refund using the IRS’s Where’s My Refund Tool.  You can find that here: https://www.irs.gov/wheres-my-refund

We hope you found this helpful.  Wishing you a smooth, stress-free tax season! 

SOURCES:
1 “IRA Contribution Limits,” IRS, www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/plan-participant-employee/retirement-topics-ira-contribution-limits
2 “Substantiating Charitable Contributions,” IRS, www.irs.gov/charities-non-profits/substantiating-charitable-contributions
3 “Get Your Refund Faster,” IRS, www.irs.gov/refunds/get-your-refund-faster-tell-irs-to-direct-deposit-your-refund-to-one-two-or-three-accounts

4 Common Tax Mistakes

mistake 1

MISTAKE #1: Filing Too Early

It may be surprising to hear, but many people are so anxious to get their filing done ahead of time, they file their taxes before receiving all the proper documentation they need to ensure their information is accurate. This can lead to mistakes and processing delays.


mistake 2

MISTAKE #2: Missing Eligible Credits and Deductions

There are many credits and deductions you may be eligible for. But some of these, like the Earned Income Tax Credit, the Child Tax Credit, energy tax credits, and various itemized deductions, can be difficult to figure out, causing some to skip out on them entirely. This is why working with a good tax professional can really pay off.


mistake 3

MISTAKE #3: Forgetting to Contribute to an IRA

Some taxpayers forget to contribute to an Individual Retirement Account each year. These contributions are tax-deferred, meaning they can help reduce your taxable income. For the 2023 tax year, the contribution limit is $6,500 for those under age 50 and $7,500 for those over.*


mistake 4

MISTAKE #4: Not Reporting All Income

Many taxpayers only think of their paycheck when reporting income, forgetting to factor in dividends, bank interest, and other income sources. This information is critical for both calculating the credits and deductions you can take as well as the refund you are entitled to.

* “IRA Contribution Limits” – Internal Revenue Service

Your Q1 Financial Checklist

As financial advisors, we are big believers in checklists. They help us stay organized, keep our priorities straight, and ensure that everything we need to do for you gets done.

One of the items on our personal checklist this month is to send a checklist to you.

It’s 2024! A new year means new opportunities, new adventures, new goals to achieve. But doing all that requires some housekeeping. There are certain financial steps we highly recommend you take early in the year in order to make the rest of 2024 as enjoyable and stress-free as possible. So, to that end, we are including a short “Q1 Financial Checklist” with this letter.

The well-known surgeon Atul Gawande said in his book, The Checklist Manifesto: “Checklists cannot be lengthy. A rule of thumb is to keep it between five and nine items, which is the limit of working memory.”With that in mind, we’ve chosen seven items that are especially important.

The tasks on this list are all things that should be taken care of in the first quarter. Don’t worry – they’re not difficult! In fact, you may have handled most of them already. Some may not even apply to you. But each task is important in its own way. Put them all together, and you will find yourself more financially organized…and several steps closer to your financial goals.

If you need help or have questions about any of these, please let us know. In the meantime, we hope you have a great first quarter…and a wonderful 2024!


Q1 Financial Checklist for 2024
Tip: Print this out and stick it on the fridge or somewhere else it will be seen. That way, you can check off the items one by one as you complete them!

Replenish – or Add to – Your Rainy-Day Fund

If you had to dip into your “rainy-day” fund last year, begin this year by adding to it as soon as possible. Knowing you have the funds to cover an emergency is probably the single best way to remove financial anxiety from your life. You don’t have to do it all at once – even just adding a little bit each month is helpful. A good rule of thumb, though, is to have enough saved to cover three-to-six months’ worth of living expenses.

Contribute to Your IRA for 2023

If you haven’t yet contributed to your IRA in the last year, there’s still time to do so. The deadline to contribute for the 2023 tax year is April 15, 2024. (Remember that if you do decide to contribute, you must designate the year you are contributing for.) For 2023, the maximum amount you can contribute is $6,500 if you are under 50, and $7,500 if you are age 50 or older.1 Your tax preparer should be able to help you fill out the necessary forms, but please feel free to contact me if you need any help. 

Rebalance Your 401(k)

The beginning of the year is a great time to check if your 401(k) needs to be rebalanced. When you originally set up your 401(k), you likely selected a specific asset allocation. (So much in domestic stocks, so much in foreign stocks, so much in bonds, etc.) But over time, your 401(k), like any portfolio, may get overly weighted in one type of asset over others due to how the markets perform. This means your 401(k) will no longer be allocated in the way you originally set. “Rebalancing” your 401(k) means to realign the investments so they match your current allocation. Let me know if you need any help with this!  

Get Your Taxes Done Early

This one’s easy to understand! Starting sooner means mistakes are less likely, available deductions or credits are taken advantage of, and headaches are reduced. An important note regarding Schwab 1099 tax forms: digital tax exports and mailings are scheduled for February 16th. Please allow 7 to 10 days for the mailing to arrive.

Buy Any Discounted Items That You Need

After the national spending spree that is the holiday season, many stores will offer discounts on products. Even big-ticket items like furniture, electronics, and exercise equipment can sometimes be found for relative bargains. So, if there’s a major purchase in your future, look into doing it earlier in the year, if possible – you may just find a great deal!  

Plan, Budget, and Save For Your Vacation(s) Now

Similarly, airfare and hotel costs can sometimes be found for less if booked very early. Plus, when you determine where you want to go and what you want to do well in advance, it gives you more time to set aside money specifically for your trip…so you may not need to dip into your long-term savings!

Take Advantage of Higher Interest Rates While They Last

As you know, interest rates are historically high right now. That’s not so great for consumers, but it’s good for savers. If you have more short-term goals you want to save for – like a trip or major purchase, for example – consider taking advantage of higher rates. There are many potential ways, including Certificates of Deposit, Treasury Bills, and money market accounts. Give me a call if you’d like more information!

[1] “IRA Contribution Limits,” Internal Revenue Service, https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/plan-participant-employee/retirement-topics-ira-contribution-limits

2023-in-Review

2023: The Year in Review

Every January, it’s customary to look back on the year that was. What were the highlights? What were the “lowlights”?  What events will we remember?  Most importantly, what did we learn? 

As you know, many noteworthy and historic events happened in 2023.  Conflicts in Gaza, Ukraine, and Sudan.  India surpassed China as the most populous country in the world.  New temperature records were set all around the globe.  The use of “artificial intelligence” exploded and turned multiple industries on their heads.  Chinese spy balloons and deep-sea submarines grabbed the headlines.  The “Barbenheimer” phenomenon reinvigorated Hollywood. 

But in some ways, one of the most notable occurrences of 2023 is what didn’t happen: We never entered a recession. 

When 2023 began, the fear of a recession was so widespread that it almost seemed inevitable.  According to one survey, 70% of economists expected a recession to hit the U.S. in 2023.1  Another survey found 58% of economists believed there was a more than 50% chance of a recession. 1  For politicians, pundits, and analysts, it was practically all they could talk about. 

But it never happened.  Instead, the economy grew by 2.2% in the first quarter, 2.1% in the second, and 4.9% in the third.2  (As of this writing, the numbers for Q4 are not yet available, but it’s expected to go up again.)  None of this is to say that our economy is perfect, or that we won’t have a recession in the future.  But for 2023, all the gloomy forecasts simply didn’t come to pass. 

Now, let’s be fair to all those economists who got it wrong: They had very good reasons for expecting a recession.  Reasons based on data, logic, and history. 

You see, when the year began, the U.S. was coming off a nasty 2022.  While consumer prices were already coming down from their earlier highs, the national inflation rate was still 6.5%.3  Interest rates, meanwhile, had risen dramatically, from just above 0% at the beginning of 2022 to over 4% by the end.4  It was already the highest level we’d seen in fifteen years – just before the Great Recession, in fact – and every indication was that rates would continue to rise higher.  All this economic pain was reflected in the stock market.  The S&P 500, for example, dropped over 19% in 2022.5 

For economists, all this data seemed to point a clear way forward.  The Federal Reserve is mandated to keep consumer prices as stable as possible.  (Its target has long been to hold inflation to around 2%.)  When inflation runs hot, the Fed’s main tool for lowering it is to raise interest rates.  Higher rates often lead to lower consumer spending.  Lower spending, in turn, prompts businesses to decrease the cost of the goods and services they provide.  Essentially, higher rates create an environment where supply is greater than demand, thus cooling inflation.

But there’s a side effect to this.  If spending drops too much, businesses are often forced to cut back on expansion, investment, and labor costs.  This leads to a rise in unemployment…and a contracting economy.  In short, a recession. 

This string of events isn’t just logical.  It’s supported by history.  When inflation has skyrocketed in the past, the Fed’s playbook has usually worked to bring prices down…but it’s usually triggered a recession, too.  Economists call this a “hard landing.” 

Look at these two charts.  The top shows interest rate levels since 1955.3  The gray bars indicate a recession.  Notice how often a gray bar appears in the aftermath of a sharp rise in rates?  Similarly, the bottom chart shows the unemployment rate.6  See how the gray bars always coincide with a major spike in unemployment?  It’s clear that, historically, fast-rising rates often trigger a rise in unemployment…which contributes to a recession. 

What about when prices come down, but the economy does not?  Economists call that a soft landing, and it’s proven to be very difficult to achieve.  It’s no surprise, then, that most economists predicted a hard landing in 2023.

One year later, that hasn’t happened.  Interest rates did continue to rise.  As of this writing, they’re at 5.3%.4  Inflation has continued to cool, albeit slowly.  As of November, the inflation rate was 3.1%.  That’s a 3.4% drop from the beginning of the year.3  But consumer spending has remained steady.  The labor market has remained strong.  The unemployment rate was only 3.7% as of November.6  And, as we’ve already covered, the economy has continued to grow. 

From a financial standpoint, this, to us, is the major storyline of 2023.  Which means we must ask ourselves: “What can we learn from it?”  As financial advisors, we’ve taken the time to jot down a few lessons we think are worth remembering as we move into the New Year.  Here they are:

#1: Always emphasize preparation over prediction.  The economists who predicted a recession weren’t stupid.  They used the best data they had to make the best predictions they could.  But 2023 shows that even the most well-informed people simply can’t see the future.  Even the near future!  There are simply too many variables to consider.  That’s why, as investors, we must always emphasize planning over predicting.  We can’t predict when the markets will drop nearly 20%, as they did in 2022.5  Or, when they’ll rise by well over 20%, as they did in 2023.5  What we do at Minich MacGregor Wealth Management is plan ahead for what each of our clients should do if the markets fall, or if they rise.  We help our clients prepare mentally and financially for both market storms and market sunshine.  So that they can weather the former and take advantage of the latter. 

When investors predict, they’re essentially swinging for the fences on every pitch.  Occasionally, a prediction can lead to a home run…but it can also lead to a lot of strike outs.  By planning, we don’t have to swing at all.  Since we can’t control the situation, we simply make the best out of every situation.  We control only what we can control – ourselves. 

#2: Be wary of confirmation bias.  Earlier in the year, we spoke to many people who were convinced a recession would happen.  Because of that, they tended to disregard all data that pointed away from a recession, and only valued information that confirmed what they already believed.  As a result, many investors missed out on a stellar market recovery.  Thankfully, our clients did not.  This is another example of why preparing is much better than predicting.  It removes emotion from decision-making.  At Minich MacGregor Wealth Management, we’re not so focused on “being right” as we are on “being ready.” 

#3: Remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results.  You’ve probably seen this line in the past, and 2023 is a great example of why.  Just because rising interest rates have led to recessions in the past doesn’t mean they always will.  Just because the markets went one direction yesterday doesn’t mean they’ll go the same direction tomorrow.  While history isa great resource to draw from when making decisions, it’s just a guide, not a guarantee.  

#4: At the same time, don’t anchor to the present.  As humans, we have a natural tendency to think that the way things are today is how they’ll be tomorrow.  When 2022 ended, many investors felt that 2023 would be much the same.  Now, investors run the risk of thinking that just because a recession didn’t happen last year, it won’t happen this year. 

Again, it all goes back to planning and preparation.  Here at Minich MacGregor Wealth Management, we will continue to prepare for all possible outcomes.  We’ll help our clients plan for how to reach the outcomes they want and avoid the ones they don’t.  We would love to help you, too!  But instead of predicting, instead of assuming, instead of anchoring, we will accept that the future is written in clay, not stone.  Only when it becomes the past does it harden.  By doing this, we can help shape your future into whatever it is you want it to be. 

So, that’s 2023!  We hope it was a wonderful year.  If you ever need any help making 2024 even better, know that we are always here.  In the meantime, we wish you a Happy New Year!        

SOURCES:

1 “Top US economists are often wrong – should we trust their predictions?” The Guardian, www.theguardian.com/business/2023/nov/19/us-economists-wrong-predictions

2 “Annualized growth of real GDP in the United States,” Statista, www.statista.com/statistics/188185/percent-change-from-preceding-period-in-real-gdp-in-the-us/

3 “United States Inflation Rate,” Trading Economics, https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi

4 “Federal Funds Effective Rate,” St. Louis Fed, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS

5 “S&P 500 Historical Annual Returns,” Macrotrends, https://www.macrotrends.net/2526/sp-500-historical-annual-returns

6 “Unemployment Rate,” St. Louis Fed, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE