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Month: September 2022

Summer Rally Over

What’s going on with the markets?

We’ve got some thoughts to share.

Higher-than-expected inflation data slammed investor expectations and rippled through markets, causing a broad selloff.1

We definitely expect to see more volatility in the weeks to come.

Want a deeper dive into what’s going on and what could happen next? Keep reading.

(If not, scroll down to our P.S. for something delightful.)

Why are markets selling off?

Folks were hoping that tamer inflation would cause the Federal Reserve to pull back on its interest rate hikes.

Unfortunately, the hot inflation data means the Fed is likely to continue aggressive rate hikes in the months to come, spooking investors who expected a pivot away from higher rates.

When the Fed sets higher interest rates, it increases the cost of credit across the entire economy, making mortgages, car loans, credit cards, business financing, etc. more expensive.

Investors worry that those higher rates will slow the economy (and maybe tip it into recession) and ding company performance.

Higher interest rates could also make investors less willing to accept steep valuations amid risks to future earnings growth.

What could be the longer-term impact of rate hikes?

Whenever we want to understand what could happen, it’s useful to go back in time and take a look at what’s happened before. While the past can’t predict the future, it’s often a useful guide.

An analysis of 12 previous rate hike cycles shows that, overall, equity markets handled tightening reasonably well. Across these cycles, the S&P 500 averaged a total return (including interest, dividends, etc.) of 9.4%.2

So, what can history teach us?

  1. Stocks tended to take rate hikes in stride over time.
  2. However, those historical gains didn’t come in a straight line. They included dips, shocks, selloffs, and bear markets. They even included a few recessions.
  3. Folks who bailed on the ride down probably missed a lot of the ride back up.
  4. Predictions are a murky business. While what happened in the past is useful to a point, it’s not a map of the future.

What’s the bottom line?

We think more volatility is definitely in the cards in the days and weeks ahead. As investors digest the Fed decision, economic data, and Q3 corporate earnings, we’re going to see some reactions, positive and negative.

However, we don’t think it’ll all be gloom and doom. We think markets are overreacting and forgetting that there’s a lot of uncertainty and margin for error in economic data.

Statistical agencies have to walk a thin line to get data out quickly (so it’s useful to decision makers) while being transparent about how much error is baked into their estimates.

Bottom line, we’re keeping an eye on markets and the economy, and we’ll reach out with more insights as we have them.

P.S. Need a distraction? Here’s a live kitten cam from an animal sanctuary.

1 https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/12/stock-futures-are-higher-as-wall-street-awaits-key-inflation-report-.html

2 https://www.truist.com/content/dam/truist-bank/us/en/documents/article/wealth/insights/market-perspective-03-18-22.pdf#page=2

A Tricky Recipe

You’ve probably noticed the volatility wreaking havoc in the markets over the past few weeks. To understand what’s going on, let us tell you a story.

Imagine you are inside a fancy restaurant, waiting for your meal to be prepared. While you wait, you can watch the chefs as they work. Suddenly, though, you notice there seems to be some uncertainty going on in the kitchen. By listening closely, you can just barely make out what the chefs are arguing about: Does the recipe call for two teaspoons of salt, or two tablespoons? Or is it even two cups?

One by one, the other diners start paying attention to the debate, too. Each voices their opinion to the other. Some diners want the chefs to add two teaspoons of salt. They rationalize that, while you can always add more salt later, but you can’t ever un-salt your food. Too much salt will ruin both the meal and everyone’s night. Others point out that there are no salt shakers on the tables, meaning if more salt is needed, the chefs will have to do it themselves. That will delay the meal, and people need to eat now. Better to just use two tablespoons. Sure, maybe the food will end up a little too salty, but that’s better than overly bland food — or no food at all.

As the wait drags on, the diners start getting nervous. They decide to amend their order and ask for less food. Other diners decide to leave the restaurant entirely. Finally, the head chef announces the restaurant is committed to adding just the right amount of salt, so they will add it gradually, little by little, until they know they have it right.

Unfortunately, this little speech, while providing clarity as to the chef’s intentions, does nothing to quell the concerns of all the diners. Some applaud loudly, others boo. Some rush to order more food, while others ask for the check. Before long, the noise is deafening.

Maybe, you think, we should have just ordered a pizza.

Crazy as it may seem, this little play actually describes some of what’s going on in the markets right now. (Except that the chefs are the Federal Reserve, the food is the economy, the recipe is for bringing down inflation, and the salt is interest rates.)

For the last nine months, the Federal Reserve has been trying to follow an incredibly tricky recipe: Bring down inflation without bringing down the economy. Just as chefs use salt to flavor food, our nation’s central bank uses interest rates to help moderate runaway consumer prices. The problem both face is it can be difficult to know how much of that magical ingredient to use. Just as too much salt can make food unbearable to eat, raising interest rates too high, too fast can trigger a recession. Raising interest rates too little, however, might do nothing to quell inflation. And like those diners in the story who needed to eat, consumers need relief from inflation now.

Those diners, of course, are investors. Every investor has their own opinion on what the Fed should do. More importantly, every investor is trying to guess what the Fed will do. That guessing is the prime reason for all this volatility. Investors who believe rising interest rates will hurt corporate earnings and trigger a recession decide to eat somewhere else, bringing the stock market down. Investors who still see the restaurant as the best place in town – regardless of interest rates – order more food and drive the markets back up.

Remember in the story how the head chef came out and made a big speech? Well, that’s my attempt at describing what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell did two weeks ago. Every year, Powell delivers a speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming where he reveals the Fed’s views on the economy. In the days leading up to his speech, some investors thought he might announce the Fed would look to dial back on hiking rates much further. Their reasoning? Some data suggests inflation is peaking, so there’s no need to keep raising interest rates.

Powell wasted no time in dashing those hopes, however. In his speech, Powell said that this is “no place to stop or pause.”1 Fighting inflation will remain the Fed’s number one priority for the foreseeable future. That means the Fed will continue to gradually raise interest rates, likely around 0.5% to 0.75% every few months. He further said:

“While higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses. These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation. But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain.” 1

In other words, bringing down inflation is simply more important than stimulating economic growth right now. (Or propping up the markets.)

This is why there’s been so much volatility in the markets lately. It’s also why we can expect volatility to continue, at least in the short-term. Many economists expect the Fed to hike rates by another 0.75% later this month. So, don’t be surprised to see more volatility before and after that announcement, if it comes.

The reason we’re telling you all this is to assure you that, while volatility is never fun, it is not unexpected. It has not taken us unawares. Nor, frankly, do we feel it’s something you need to stress over. You see, here at Minich MacGregor Wealth Management, we act more like “financial dietitians” than anything else. (This is the last food metaphor, we promise.) A dietitian focuses on using the fundamentals of good nutrition to help people eat better, healthier foods so they can achieve their health goals – regardless of what’s “in style” or what celebrity fad-diet is trending. As your financial advisors, our job is to help you achieve your financial goals, in part by making sound, long-term decisions, not overreacting to what the Fed does – or says – or what the market thinks about it.

To put it simply, the volatility we’ve seen lately is the same old story we’ve been reading about all year long. It’s the same story we’ll probably continue to read about moving forward. For that reason, our advice is to enjoy the end of summer rather than stressing about market headlines. Our team will continue to monitor your portfolio. And of course, if you ever have any questions or concerns, please let us know. That’s what we’re here for!

1 “Powell warns of ‘some pain’ ahead as the Fed fights to bring down inflation,” CNBC, August 26, 2022.  https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/26/powell-warns-of-some-pain-ahead-as-fed-fights-to-lower-inflation.html

Strength Prosperity and Well-Being

Whether we can believe it or not, Labor Day is here.

Kids are about to go back to school. The hotter days of this summer are (hopefully) moving past us. And, supposedly, we are now to avoid wearing white.

This holiday is often the last big opportunity to invite family and friends over to grill some food and enjoy the day outdoors. To us, it also marks another day to be grateful to those who have paved the path before us and to those who work hard to make our country better tomorrow than it is today.

Since Labor Day was declared a holiday, the purpose has been to take a day to celebrate the great workers across America who contribute to our country’s strength, prosperity, and well-being.

In fact, it’s often when we are in our most dire situations these great workers step in to help. They lift you back up to health. They help you find stable ground to stand on. In truth, they save lives.

In these past few years, we have celebrated those who have worked in healthcare. Stories of endless days helping countless patients and families deal with the suffering caused by the pandemic has led to most healthcare workers being declared heroes.

Do they feel heroic?

According to Mansi Patel at Johns Hopkins Hospital, “Honestly, I don’t think so. [Nurses have] been taking care of people forever…This is what I do. This is what I love doing.”1

How could we not celebrate the care and hard work of all healthcare workers? They have made a significant contribution to the strength, prosperity, and well-being of our country.

Social workers are often an overlooked miracle worker. They help when individuals and families are in crisis. We’ve known several of these hard-working people over the years, and they are all amazing.

We read one story of a social worker who was helping in a case of dementia. They went above and beyond to ensure great care and reassure a daughter who couldn’t be there physically. As Ming Ho, the daughter said, “I knew my mum was in crisis, but I couldn’t get her to either see it or accept it, so she was hostile to any professional intervention. The social worker understood that she had to work with me in doing whatever worked for my mum, rather than what fitted into their system…I wasn’t able to meet [the social worker] face to face, but I just appreciated that she treated us like human beings. We weren’t just people in a system.”2

You better believe social workers are helping provide strength, prosperity, and well-being to our country.

Sometimes, these great workers do even more when they are “off the clock” so to speak.

Firefighter Felix Marquez visited a home in the line of duty to install a free smoke detector. The area had been hit hard by Hurricane Irma, and when Felix arrived at the home, he found the 70-year-old homeowner dragging a piece of plywood in his front yard with nearly no hope of getting it in place on the roof.

The home had a blue tarp flapping on the roof and inside the home there was mold from leaks. When Felix let his fellow firefighters know of the scene, they were all in. They spent $3,500 of their own money on supplies and gathered at the home. That Sunday afternoon they hammered boards in place to provide a more secure roof.

Firefighters like this work hard every day across our nation providing strength, protecting prosperity, and promoting well-being.

We see it every day as we go about our lives. Great workers doing their best. Are there concerns in our workforce? Yes. But that doesn’t seem to stop good people from going out there every day and doing good.

So, this Labor Day, we are grateful. We live in a great country where every single day individuals, often receiving no recognition, provide strength, prosperity, and well-being to me. And to you. Happy Labor Day to you and your family!

1 https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/news/articles/one-year-later-are-front-line-workers-still-heroes

2 https://www.theguardian.com/social-care-network/2015/mar/17/the-social-worker-who-changed-my-life

Questions You Were Afraid to Ask #3

A few months ago, we started a new series of posts called “Questions You Were Afraid to Ask.”  Each month, we look at a common question that many investors – especially new investors – have but feel uncomfortable asking.  Because when it comes to your finances, there’s no such thing as a bad question!

In our last post, we looked at why some stock market indices – like the Dow – are valued much higher than, say, the S&P 500.  But what is a stock, exactly?  How does it compare to other kinds of investments?  Even folks with a lot saved for retirement aren’t always sure.  You see, many Americans build wealth and save for retirement through their employers.  Maybe they take advantage of a company 401(k) or are awarded company stock as part of their compensation.  Either way, they don’t spend much time thinkingabout their investment options, because it’s simply not required in order to start investing. 

As a result, many Americans may have heard of different investment types – or asset classes, as they are also known – without truly knowing how they differ, or what the pros and cons of each type are.  So, over the following three months, we’ll break down some of the most important investment types, starting with the two most well-known.  Without further ado, let’s dive into:   

Questions You Were Afraid to Ask #3:
What’s better, stocks or bonds?

When you purchase a bond, you are essentially loaning a company, government, or organization money.  When you buy stock, you are purchasing partial ownership in a company.  For this reason, stocks are equity investments while bonds are debt investments.  Before we answer Question #3, let’s examine how each type works.   

How Stocks Work

When you buy a company’s stock, you buy a share in that company – and the more shares you buy, the more of the company you own.  Generally speaking, stocks can be held for as short or long a time as you wish, but many experts recommend holding onto your shares for longer-term if you anticipate their value will rise over time. 

For example, let’s say ACME Corporation – which makes roadrunner traps – sells their stock for $50 per share.  You invest $5000 into the company, which means you now own 100 shares.  Now, fast forward five years.  ACME’s business has grown, investors like what they see, which consequently puts their stock in higher demand.  As a result, the stock price is now $75 per share.  Because you own equity in the company, you benefit from its growth, too – and your investment is now worth $2,500 more, for a total of $7,500.    

The Pros and Cons of Investing in Stocks

Every investment has its strengths and weaknesses, and stocks are no exception. The single biggest benefit to investing in stocks is that, historically, they outperform most types of investments over the long term. Because stocks represent partial ownership in a business, finding a strong company that performs well over the course of years and decades can be a powerful way to save for the future. Additionally, stocks are a fairly liquid investment. That means it can potentially be easier to both buy and sell them whenever you need cash.  Many other investment types, like bonds, can be more difficult or costly to sell, in some cases locking you in for the long term.

But these pros are just one side of a double-edged sword. You see, with the possibility of a higher return comes added risk. While the stock market has historically risen over the long-term, individual stock prices can be extremely volatile, climbing and falling daily, sometimes dramatically. For example, if a company underperforms relative to its expectations, the stock price can go down. Sometimes, companies can even fail altogether, and it’s possible for investors to lose everything they put in. As the saying goes, risk nothing, gain nothing — but it’s equally true that if you risk too much, you can leave with less.

Furthermore, to actually realize any gains you’ve made (or cash out a potential increase in value), you must sell your stock, which can trigger a significant tax bill. 

How Bonds Work

Bonds potentially rise in value and might be sold for a profit, but generally speaking, that’s not what most investors are looking for.  Instead, bondholders are hoping something a bit more predictable: Fixed income in the form of regular interest payments. 

As previously mentioned, bonds are a loan from you to a company or government.  That loan might last days or years – sometimes even up to 100 years – but when the bond matures, the company pays you back your initial investment.  In the meantime, the company typically pays you regular interest, just like you would when you take out a loan.  Depending on the type of bond you buy, these payments can be annual, quarterly, or monthly.  Interest payments are why investors often look to bonds as a source of income.

The Pros and Cons of Bonds

Income isn’t the only “pro” when it comes to bonds.  Bonds tend to be less volatile than stocks.  Also, since the company that issued the bond is technically in your debt, you would be among the first in line to get at least some of your money back even if the company enters bankruptcy.  That’s not the case with stocks. 

But just because bonds are less volatile doesn’t mean they’re risk-free.  Bonds may rise or fall in face value as interest rates change.  Face value is typically calculated by seeing what others would likely be willing to pay to take over that debt from you. So, for example, if you bought a bond in Year 1 only to see interest rates go up in Year 2, the value of your bond will likely fall.  That’s because you are missing out on the higher interest rate payments you would have had if you bought the bond in Year 2 instead.  That’s important, because if you wanted to sell your bond before it reached maturity, you would probably have to settle for a lower price than what you initially paid.         

Stocks and Bonds Together

As you can see, stocks and bonds each have different advantages and disadvantages.  That’s why neither is “better” than the other.  It’s also why, for many investors, the real answer is, “Why not both?”   

Far from being competitive, stocks and bonds are actually considered complementary.  That’s because each brings things to the table the other doesn’t.  Furthermore, stocks and bonds are what’s known as non-correlated assets.  That means they don’t necessarily move in tandem.  For example, say the stock market goes down.  Just because stocks are down doesn’t mean bond values will fall, too. In fact, it’s possible they go up!  And of course, the inverse is also true. 

(Understand that this kind of non-correlated movement is not guaranteed.  The point is that allocating a portion of your portfolio to both stocks and bonds is a good way of not keeping all your eggs in one basket.) 

Obviously we could go on for pages and pages on the ins and outs of stocks and bonds.  This post just scratches the surface.  But hopefully it gives you a better idea about how these two important asset classes work and why people should consider both when it comes to investing for the future. 

Of course, choosing which stocks and bonds to buy is an entirely different subject…and it’s why next month, we’ll break down how some investors get around this problem by putting their money in funds.    

In the meantime, have a great month!