Month: December 2021

As another eventful year comes to a close, we’d like to offer a heartfelt “thank you” for being part of the Minich MacGregor Wealth Management journey.

We are so deeply grateful for your trust and presence in our lives and we’re sending you our warmest wishes for an amazing end to 2021 and a great start to 2022.

2021 was another year of uncertainty, but also a year where the indomitable human spirit shined.

There’s a lot we can’t control about the future, but we can control a few things.

As we usher in a new year with great expectations, can we commit to a few things together?

Embracing Our Dreams

It might still look hard to fully commit to dreams when the world is still uncertain. But let’s move forward and recommit to them even if they look a little different.

Our job together is to help you grow and protect your wealth so you can use it to reach your aspirations, retire in comfort, create change in the world, and leave a legacy of love. It’s the desire to see you achieve your dreams that drives our team to work tirelessly on your behalf.

Harnessing Our Behaviors

With so much out of our control (the markets, the economy, inflation, and other shocks), it’s so important to focus on ourselves, our hopes, our goals, and our dreams.

Identifying the choices in our control isn’t just a good financial lesson, it’s a great life lesson. Let’s commit to deep breaths, small improvements, patience, and curiosity.

Focusing on Kindness And Patience

In a time of increasing polarization, let’s commit to treating each other with kindness, patience, love, and respect. Here’s something we try to keep in mind when we talk to folks we disagree with: “Be kind, for everyone you meet is fighting a hard battle.”

Thank you again for being with us on this journey. We are deeply grateful to have you with us.

Warmest Wishes!

P.S. With December 31 approaching, it’s your last chance to make charitable gifts, take Required Minimum Distributions, and make Qualified Charitable Distributions for 2021.

P.P.S. Lawmakers are sprinting to pass legislation (including the Build Back Better Act) before the end of 2021. We’ll post in the new year with anything critical that you need to know.

The Grinch is trying a new trick this year.  Instead of dressing up like Santa Claus and stealing presents, he’s decided to leave a little market volatility under the tree for each of us instead. 

If you’ve been watching the markets, you know the Dow dropped 532 points on Friday, December 17 – then promptly slid another 433 points the following Monday.¹  As your financial advisors, the last thing we want is for market fear to overshadow holiday cheer.  So, we thought we’d pen a short note about what’s going on for you to read between hanging stockings and wrapping gifts.  Like any good Christmas story, things may seem gloomy at first, but in this email, we’ll explain why, despite his best efforts, the Market Grinch still won’t be able to ruin the season. 

Omicron

When the World Health Organization announced a new variant of COVID-19 back in November, the market’s reaction was predictable: A sharp drop, an equally sharp recovery, and then a plateau of watchful waiting.  (The Dow dropped over 1,782 points between November 24 and December 1, then climbed 1,697 points over the next six days.²)  That was because investors realized there was a lot we didn’t yet know about Omicron yet, including:

• If it was more or less contagious than previous variants.
• If it was more or less virulent than previous variants.
• How effective the various vaccines would be at protecting against it.

Thanks to the heroic efforts of scientists around the world, we now know much more than we did just a few weeks ago.  Unfortunately, the news isn’t entirely good.  As you’ve probably heard, early evidence – emphasis on “early” – indicates that Omicron is significantly more contagious than previous variants like Delta.³  It’s also more capable of evading the body’s immune response, meaning that both prior infection and existing vaccines – including the two-shot MRNA vaccines available in the United States – provide less protection against infection.⁴ 

The news isn’t all bad, though.  As of this writing, there doesn’t seem to be any evidence that Omicron is more deadly than previous variants.  Further, vaccines do still seem to offer significant protection against severe illness and hospitalization.⁴

But the prospect of an especially contagious variant spreading like wildfire across the globe once again has investors heading for the hills.  And the reason is understandable. 

Omicron’s rapid rise has prompted many countries to circle the wagons again.  The Netherlands has re-instituted strict lockdown measures, France has banned large events and gatherings, Denmark has closed theaters, Israel has imposed travel restrictions…you get the idea.⁵  And other countries are poised to follow suit in the coming days.  Of course, every country will experience consequences in some form or fashion.  As more people get sick, restaurants, shops, manufacturing plants and other businesses the world over will be forced to shut down or cut back on production.  Given that most economies still haven’t recovered completely from the initial stages of the pandemic, it’s the last thing the world needs. 

The most important cost of all this, of course, is the human cost.  Every day, people’s lives are being changed forever because of this awful virus.  But the economic cost is what has investors reeling.  Whether through more restrictions or more cases, Omicron is throwing yet another wrench into the world’s supply-chains.  This, in turn, keeps prices high and worsens inflation. 

It’s frustrating that we have to keep talking about this, isn’t it?  As we enter the thirdyear of the pandemic, it’s easy to feel like we’re starting over.  Back to Square One.  Maybe, to quote a phrase currently going around on social media, the year 2022 should be pronounced “2020, too.”  On the surface, it seems like the Grinch is winning. 

But if we may quote a very famous doctor…

“[The Grinch] heard a sound rising over the snow.
It started in low.  Then it started to grow.
But the sound wasn’t sad!  Why, this sound sounded merry!
It couldn’t be so!  But it WAS merry!  Very!
Every Who down in Whoville, the tall and the small,
Was singing!  Without any presents at all!
He HADN’T stopped Christmas from coming! IT CAME!
Somehow or other, Christmas came just the same.⁶

You see, we’re not back to Square One. We’re not starting over – as a nation or as investors.  Flash back to the March 2020.  Do you remember how things felt?  The virus was new and terrifying.  We didn’t know exactly what it did or how it worked or what we could do about it.  Now, all these months later, we know – and have – so much more.  As citizens, we know how to live with the virus, and how to keep ourselves as safe as possible from it.  We have vaccines and other treatments.  We have experience. 

As investors, we know how to handle sharp, COVID-related downturns.  Of course, we don’t know exactly how long volatility will last, but that doesn’t matter – because we have a playbook for dealing with it.  Just as we did in 2020, we’re capable of going on defense as soon as the technical signals indicate it.  (And we have many such indicators that we watch every single day.)  Should Omicron prompt a sustained downward trend, we’ll focus on preserving our clients’ principal.

That’s why the Market Grinch isn’t winning.  It’s why he never will.

So, our advice is to forget about the Grinch.  Ignore the headlines.  Fill your mind with visions of sugarplums and your heart with love for the season.  Be like the Whos down in Whoville.  Our team will continue keeping an eye on the markets, using the playbook we’ve worked so hard to assemble.           

From everyone here at MinichMacGregor Wealth Management, we wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

P.S.  While we encourage you to not stress over market swings, we understand that’s sometimes easier said than done.  After all, it’s your money!  So, if you have any questions or concerns, please let us know. We will always be here for you.  

_Sources:

_{1 Stocks fall and oil sinks as storm clouds gather over global economy,” CNN Business, December 20, 2021.  https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/20/investing/markets-stocks-oil/index.html}

_{2 “Dow Jones Industrial Average Historical Prices,” The Wall Street Journal, accessed December 20, 2021.  https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/DJIA/historical-prices}

_{3 “Why Is Omicron So Contagious?” The Scientific American, December 17, 2021.  https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-is-omicron-so-contagious/}

_{4 “See COVID Vaccine Efficacy Against Omicron Infection, Severe Disease in One Chart,” NBC, December 20, 2021.  https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/see-covid-vaccine-efficacy-against-omicron-infection-severe-disease-in-one-chart/3459677/}

_{5 “Stocks, Oil Prices Fall on New Covid-19 Curbs,” The Wall Street Journal, December 20, 2021.  https://clicktime.cloud.postoffice.net/clicktime.php?U=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.wsj.com%2Farticles%2Fglobal-stock-markets-dow-update-12-20-2021-11639989846&E=maryellen%40mmwealth.com&X=XID331ZLuPsr5067Xd2&T=MMWL&HV=U,E,X,T&H=48eb14fb760ebbd9ac42ea91ccb23700cb3eb7c5}

_{6 Dr. Seuss, “How the Grinch Stole Christmas,” Best Poems Encyclopedia, https://www.best-poems.net/poem/how-grinch-stole-christmas-by-dr-seuss.html}

You know Dasher and Dancer, Prancer and Vixen, Comet, and Cupid, Donder and Blixem.

Ho, ho, ho…Or do you?

We bet you thought it was Donner, and Blitzen. And while you aren’t wrong, you aren’t entirely right either.

We are all familiar with the iconic reindeer that lead Santa’s sleigh every December 24^th. This year, we are going to get to know them a little bit better. Who are they? What are their career goals? What qualifications do they possess that make them suited for this elite team Santa relies on?

Santa’s reindeer made their first debut nearly 2 centuries ago in an 1823 poem titled “A Visit from Saint Nicholas”. It was later, and better, known as “Twas the Night Before Christmas”.  It was in that poem that were officially introduced to 8 of the 9 most famous reindeer.

They were, as previously mentioned, Dasher, Dancer, Prancer, Vixen, Comet, Cupid, Donder, and Blixem.  (Now adays, the latter two are known as Donner and Blitzen. We’ll cover why in a minute.)

But first, we bet yule be surprised to learn that contrary to pop culture, all of Santa’s reindeer…. are female!

How do I know? Well, according to two scientists from Edinburgh University, the fact that the reindeer are depicted donning full-grown antlers late into December (male reindeer lose theirs during the winter months) indicates that Santa’s Christmas Eve crew are all sleighin’ it as leading ladies. However, we are a bit of a traditionalist and like to think that despite the antler status, Santa’s flight crew is co-ed.   

Now it’s time to get to snow them a little better.

Dasher – The fastest of the reindeer (unless you ask Blitzen), Dasher is the athletic one of the bunch – the jock so to speak.  She excels at sports, specifically track and field.  She has a keen eye for fashion, a happy disposition, and tends to be a social butterfly.

Dancer – Dancer has got rhythm in her soul, and music in her heart. She has incredible hoof-eye coordination and is known to breakout into song and dance at the most unusual times.  Loud and out there, Dancer loves to flaunt bright, colorful clothes. With a huge heart, she is ever popular with the elves.  

Prancer – A little vain, but just as full of good intentions as he is full of himself. He is enthusiastic, high-energy and loves a good prank (though sometimes they can go a little too far). Prancer is always dressed to the nines, complete with accessories. In fact, Mrs. Claus made him a unique, one-of-a-kind harness to store his comb, brush, and mirror so he can look good on the fly.

Vixen – Vixen is pure magic, and always has a trick up her sleeve. She can make things disappear, and then reappear. (How else do you think Santa gets his bag of toys down a chimney?) As you can imagine, just like any other performer type, Vixen loves to be the center of attention. She is calm, cool, collected, and very smart. The other reindeer tend to confide in her. Her downside? She is late to everything.

Comet – Comet pulls people into her orbit. She enjoys making people laugh. She is laid-back, easy going, and incredibly smart. You can always count on Comet being there to lend a hoof to a friend in need. She is flexible and tends to go with the flow, but when she sets her mind to something, she gets it done.

Cupid – Not to be mistaken for the little winged baby that makes people inexplicably lovesick, Cupid is the fifth reindeer to join the team. True to his name, he is extremely loving and has a heart of gold. He can’t stand to see a friend feeling sad and will go to any length to cheer them up.  His favorite colors are red (of course) and green.

Donner (Donder) – Donner was formerly known as Donder (meaning ‘thunder’). Why the name change? Well, his official witness protection cover story is that, due to his father’s job, he, Blixem, and his family took on aliases and were relocated to the North Pole for protection. Due to this sudden life change, Donner is a bit of a mystery and keeps things close to the harness. He is only close to a select few.  As a creative type, he is loud and full of ideas, and he loves to take charge.

Blitzen (Blixem) – Donner’s twin, and closest confidante. Blitzen is adventurous and a thrill seeker. Never one to sit still, he began learning to fly at a very early age. He is arguably the fastest of the reindeer (check with Dasher to get her opinion on the matter.) When Santa yells ‘faster!’, Blitzen has a supernatural ability to inject an electrical current into the other reindeer. He is always on time, and even when not on the job, he moves at lightning speed (Blixem does mean ‘lightning’ in German), getting things done in a flash.

Rudolph – You know him, you love him, he’s arguably the MVP of the team. Growing up, he saw many doctors who tried to figure out what was the cause of the bright, glowing nose he is so well known for. Experts thought it was simply the overuse of blood flowing to the capillaries in his nose due to high altitude and extreme cold. But that only accounts for the redness, the glowing is still a medical mystery. Due to his rough childhood (you know, being laughed at, and called names), Rudolph is fairly shy and self-conscious, though extremely playful with those he is comfortable with.

These nine reindeer are, truthfully, the heroes of the holiday. Without them, Santa would simply be stranded. Santa chose his reindeer wisely. While they each have their unique qualities they bring to the team, they all demonstrate similar personality traits that are crucial to carrying on the Christmas spirit.

Make sure you keep your eyes to the sky this December 24^th. A little elf told me Santa will be looking out to say hello to all of our friends.

Merry Christmas to all, and to all a goodnight!