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Month: September 2021

Storms ahead? What you need to know

The stock market got a little crazy this week.

Is a storm coming?

Let’s take a look at what’s driving markets right now.

(Scroll to the end if you just want our takeaways.)

A few things are driving the market volatility:

Fears of a financial crisis in China.

China’s overheated real estate bubble is starting to pop and Evergrande, a giant Chinese property developer, is heading toward defaulting on more than $300 billion in debt.1

Its failure could trigger a cascade of defaults among banks, materials suppliers, and investors, potentially leading to broader financial issues in China and abroad.

Worries the Federal Reserve will start tapering soon.

The Fed meets this month and traders are uneasy about the idea that the central bank could start pulling back the support now that inflation is higher and the jobs market has improved.2 Firms that depend on low interest rates and easy credit could be hurt.

Concerns about COVID-19 case numbers.

Variants continue to pop up and the delta variant continues to keep cases and hospitalizations high. Investors are concerned that another winter resurgence (like we saw last year) could slow down business and economic activity.3

Fears of another debt ceiling showdown.

Once an ordinary part of federal accounting, adjusting the debt ceiling is now a political negotiation, threatening the Treasury Department’s ability to pay its bills next month.

Though it’s unlikely either party will allow the U.S. to default on its obligations, this political brinksmanship adds anxiety each time it comes up. Another government shutdown could exacerbate political risks to markets.4

Do you see a trend? Markets are being driven by fear, anxiety, and doubt.

Which of these squalls will fade away and which could blow into a tempest?

We can’t know.

So, here’s the real question:

Could we see a 10%+ correction in the weeks or months ahead?

Possibly.

Corrections and pullbacks happen regularly and it wouldn’t be surprising to see a market drop.

To show you just how ordinary corrections are, here’s a chart that shows intra-year dips in the S&P 500 alongside annual performance.

(Take a look at the red circles to see the market drops each year.)

The big takeaway? In 14 of the last 20 years, markets have dropped at least 10%.5

Even years with strong performance saw big drops.

We’re dealing with a lot of uncertainty and investors are feeling understandably cautious about what’s ahead.

But, that doesn’t mean that we should panic and rush for the exits.

Pullbacks, corrections, and even downturns don’t last forever.

Trust the process. Trust the strategy.

We’re keeping an eye on the Chinese property market situation, as well as workings over in Washington. We can’t predict which way markets will go in the coming weeks, but we’ll be in touch as needed.

Have questions? Feeling uneasy? Please reach out. That’s what we’re here for.


1https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/17/china-developer-evergrande-debt-crisis-bond-default-and-investor-risks.html

2https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/dow-futures-tumble-more-600-points-september-slide-intensifies-n1279618

3https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/19/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

4https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/20/business/stock-market-federal-reserve.html

5https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/mi-guide-to-the-markets-us.pdf

This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

3 Milestone Ages That Will Affect Your Retirement Planning

When you’re a kid, there are certain birthdays you can’t help but look forward to.  When you’re sixteen and can drive, for example.  When you turn eighteen and can vote.  When you turn twenty-one and can…well, you know. 

As adults, we typically don’t see ages the same way that kids do.  But some ages are particularly important.  Why?  Because they have significant implications for your finances.  Here are three of those milestones:

Age 59.5:  When you turn 59.5, the early withdrawal penalty on your IRA and 401(k) will end. It is also the age at which many plans allow you to roll your balance into an IRA.

Having the penalty removed means you can withdraw money from your retirement accounts without facing a 10% penalty. That’s good news if you ever need a quick infusion of cash!

However, there are a few things to keep in mind before deciding whether to take advantage of this. First, it’s important to understand that, while the 10% early withdrawal penalty will no longer apply, any withdrawals you make from your retirement accounts will still be taxed as regular income. So, it’s hardly free money. Second, you should know that it’s often a good idea to leave that money in a retirement account.  That’s because the money inside these accounts should ideally go to one thing: your retirement! That way you’ll have the means to do what you want to do, go where you want to go, and live the life you want to live.

Many pre-retirees roll their 401(k) balance into an IRA to get access to professional management and often more investment choices.  There are many things to consider when looking at this option, cost being one of the biggest.  While you do pay fees within a 401(k), costs can rise if using professional management.  It’s important to consult with a professional to determine whether this option makes sense for you.

Age 66-67:  Depending on when you were born, this is when you reach your Full-Retirement Age – the age at which you can begin taking Social Security benefits without any reduction.  Below is a handy table that shows the Full Retirement Age for every birth year, starting with 1955.1

Year of BirthFull-Retirement Age
195566 and 2 months
195666 and 4 months
195766 and 6 months
195866 and 8 months
195966 and 10 months
1960 and later67 years of age


While waiting until your Full-Retirement Age means you can take Social Security without any reductions, you can potentially increase your payments if you wait even beyond your Full-Retirement Age! In fact, your Social Security benefits increase by 8% for each year you wait to start your payments up to age 70. After you turn 70, there’s no additional benefit to waiting.

Age 72:  From a financial standpoint, turning 72 is one of the most important birthdays you can have.  That’s because it’s now time to start rewarding yourself every year with a special kind of present called Required Minimum Distributions. 

You see, once you reach age 72, you must begin taking annual withdrawals from any 401(k)s, 403(b)s, or traditional IRAs you have.  (Roth IRAs don’t require withdrawals until after the death of the owner.)  These withdrawals are called Required Minimum Distributions, or RMDs.  RMDs are essentially the government’s way of ensuring people use tax advantaged accounts for what they were designed – to fund retirement.  And yes, RMDs are usually taxed as ordinary income. 

What happens if you don’t take distributions?  Simple: The IRS will hit you with a 50% penalty based on the amount you should have withdrawn.  The penalty also applies if you don’t take out at least the minimum amount required. 

How RMDs are calculated:  So, how much will you have to withdraw when you take out your annual distributions?  Here’s the formula in a nutshell.  To calculate your RMD, first take the balance of your IRA (or other retirement plan) as it stood on December 31 of the previous year.  Then, divide that balance by your life expectancy factor, which is determined by the IRS every year.  You can find the factor that’s specific to you by consulting with the proper calculation tables on the IRS website2, but we have a better idea.  As you get nearer to age 72, let’s sit down together and create an RMD schedule for you!  We’ll create a plan so you know exactly when to take each RMD, how much to withdraw, and even what areas of retirement each dollar should be applied to.  This way, we can do the “heavy lifting”, so you don’t have to.

If you have any questions about these milestone ages or how they’ll impact your finances, please let us know.  And be sure to contact us with any questions about RMDs.  RMDs are a particularly important part of retirement planning, so we should definitely talk about them early.   

1 “Retirement Benefits,” Social Security Administration, https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/planner/agereduction.html

2 “Publication 590-B (2020), Distributions from Individual Retirement Arrangements (IRAs),” Internal Revenue Service, https://www.irs.gov/publications/p590b

9/11 – A Miraculous Descent

It was 20 years ago this month when Stanley Praimnath saw the plane coming right at him.

The morning of September 11, 2001 was as clear, bright, and beautiful as could possibly be in downtown Manhattan.  On that day, Stanley worked as a bank executive on the 81st floor of the World Trade Center’s South Tower.  When the first plane struck the North Tower at 8:46 AM, Stanley wasted no time and made to leave the building.  But when he reached the ground floor, tower security told him to go back to his office.  The building, they said, was secure. 

Stanley went back up. 

The phone was ringing when he returned to his desk.  It was a colleague from Chicago, calling to see if he was okay.  He assured her that everything was fine.  Then, by pure chance, he turned toward his window.  As Stanley later described it: 

“…for no reason, in mid-sentence I just raised my head and looked to the Statue of Liberty and what I see is a big plane coming towards me…a big gray plane, with a red stripe.  I dropped the phone, screamed, dove under my desk and said, ‘Lord, you take over. I can’t do this.’”1 

Within seconds, the tip of the plane’s left wing sliced through his office.  Stanley was covered in debris, but the good news was that he was alive.  The bad news was that he was trapped. 

Three floors above, a man named Brian Clark was wrestling with the most important decision of his life: Up or down?  As the volunteer fire warden for his company, Brian had gathered several survivors together.  They began going down, until they were met by a woman who told them the stairs were impassable.  They would have to go up, she said, to get away from the fire and smoke. 

While the group debated, Brian heard a banging sound.  Then, in the distance, a voice shouted, “Help, I’m buried and can’t breathe.  Can anybody hear me?” 

There was hardly any time.  The floor was becoming engulfed in smoke, and Brian’s group had already decided to go back up.  But Brian and another man decided to stay.  “We’ve got to go get this guy,” he said.  Brian squeezed through a partially blocked doorway to make it onto the 81st floor.  Then, he began searching through the darkness and wreckage with a small flashlight.  He clambered over debris and moved fallen drywall while the voice guided him. 

Finally, Brian reached a wall of fallen rubble.  Near the top was a gap, and through the gap stretched a desperate hand.  It was Stanley Praimnath. 

By this point, Brian’s colleague found the smoke too unbearable and went back to join the others on a higher floor.  (He would eventually change his mind and head back down and was the last person to escape before the tower collapsed.)  Stanley, too, kept repeating that he couldn’t breathe, that he was suffocating.  The heat and the smoke must have been immense, but Brian refused to leave.  He cleared the blockage as best he could, until finally he was able to peer over the top of a fallen wall and see the man he was trying to rescue. 

“You must jump,” Brian said.  “You’ve got to jump out of there.”1 

So, Stanley jumped – just high enough for Brian to grab him and pull him over.  The two fell in a heap and embraced.  “I’m Brian,” one said.  “I’m Stanley,” said the other.  The two men had worked in the World Trade Center for years, just three floors from each other, but it was the first time they had ever met. 

When the plane crashed into the South Tower it severed two of the three emergency stairwells in the building’s core.  But the last stairwell, the one farthest from the plane’s impact, was miraculously spared.  This was the stairwell Brian and Stanley went down.  Carefully, leaning on the railing and on each other, they navigated through the smoke, over collapsed drywall, and around running water from severed sprinkler lines.  Stanley’s leg was injured, so they had to go especially slow.  At some points, the walls were cracked, and they could actually see flames spreading through the building.  But they kept going, rescuer and rescuee, all the way down to the bottom.  Eighty-one flights of stairs in less than fifty minutes. 

When they reached the ground, they made their way to a nearby church.  That’s when Stanley finally broke down and cried.  “I think this man saved my life,” he told the ministers.  But Brian didn’t think of himself as a hero.  He knew that if he hadn’t stopped to listen to that voice in the darkness, if he hadn’t had the courage to find Stanley’s hand in the chaos, if he hadn’t had the strength to grip that hand as tight as he could and say, “Jump!”, then he may well have gone up the stairs, too – for which there would be no coming down. 

“Stanley,” he said, “I think you might have saved mine, too.”

***

The September 11 attacks were the worst acts of terrorism our country has ever known.  No one who witnessed the tragedy, either in person or on television, can forget the fear and pain we felt.  But twenty years later, it’s not terror that endures, but inspiration.  Countless people performed countless acts of bravery, charity, and sacrifice that day.  Bonds were forged on 9/11 that cannot be broken.  Bonds between victims’ families.  Bonds between survivors.  (Brian and Stanley remain close friends to this day.)  While the towers fell, the country remained standing.  Over time, fear fades.  Pain eases.  But hope and heroism endure forever.  All because of people like Brian Clark, who, in the midst of smoke and flame, heard a voice call for help…and went towards it. 

As we observe the twentieth anniversary of that fateful day, we wish you and your family hope, inspiration, and peace.  May we never forget the strength and sacrifice shown by so many on that clear, bright morning – and in remembering, grow stronger ourselves.

1 “Accounts From the South Tower,” The New York Times, May 26, 2002.  https://www.nytimes.com/2002/05/26/nyregion/accounts-from-the-south-tower.html

A Life Worth Living

If you think about it, almost every major holiday centers on gratitude. 

With New Years, we express gratitude for new opportunities and a fresh start.  With Valentine’s, we express gratitude for our significant other.  Mother’s and Father’s Day, gratitude for our parents.  Memorial Day, gratitude for those who gave their lives for our country.  Independence Day, gratitude for our country itself.  Thanksgiving, gratitude for everything.  You get the idea. 

It should come as no surprise, then, that Labor Day is also about gratitude. 

Of course, gratitude probably isn’t what most people think of when it comes to Labor Day.  But it should be.  Because with Labor Day, we have an opportunity to give thanks for some indispensable rights and privileges – and the men and women who risked everything to win them for us. 

As you probably remember from history class, the late 1800s and early 1900s were a time of great social upheaval in the United States.  Workers around the country marched, protested, and went on strike in order to secure safer working conditions, fairer pay, and a higher quality life for themselves and their children.  Many lost their livelihoods in the struggle; some even lost their lives. 

But their efforts were not in vain.  Many of the rights and privileges we enjoy today – rights we too often take for granted – were thanks to the Labor Movement.  For example:

8-hour Days, 40-hour Work Weeks.  For much of our country’s history, Americans were forced to perform backbreaking labor for 12 hours per day or more.  From sunup until sundown, men and women gave every ounce of blood, sweat, and tears they had just to survive.  Thanks to the Labor Movement, 40-hour work weeks became standardized – and eventually codified into law.  The time we have to see our families, engage in hobbies, read a good book, or even just enjoy a beautiful sunset is thanks to the Labor Movement.

Weekends.  As you know, Labor Day is the first Monday of September.  That means we get to enjoy a three-day weekend.  But the very concept of a weekend is thanks to the Labor Movement!  Huge, nationwide strikes and marches around the turn of the century gained Americans the right to a shorter workweek.  Let’s all remember that the next time we sleep in on Saturday or go golfing on Sunday.  TGIF?  Workers had to fight for those letters to mean anything. 

Sick Leave.  Have you ever had a nasty bout of the flu?  Ever needed surgery?  If so, we imagine you took time off to recover.  We also imagine you didn’t worry about whether you’d still have a job by the time you were better.  Without paid sick leave, most Americans wouldn’t have the means to heal from their illnesses, injuries, and accidents.  Nowadays, we consider this a basic human right – a right we wouldn’t have without the Labor Movement. 

Paid Vacations.  Ever visited Yellowstone National Park?  Disneyland?  Ever gone on an iconic fishing trip, or just took a few days off to finish a project around the house?  Vacations are something none of us could live without.  They help us recharge our batteries.  They help enrich our lives.  They form the core of some our most cherished experiences and memories. 

We have Labor to thank for vacations, too. 

Safe Working Conditions.  On March 25, 1911, a fire broke out at the Triangle Shirtwaist Factory in New York City.  The factory’s owners escaped.  Most of the factory’s workers, mainly women, did not.  Due to locked doors, blocked fire escapes, and flammable surroundings, 146 laborers never returned home that day.1  The youngest were only 14 years old.1 

In the 21st century, none of us would want to work in a place that was fundamentally unsafe.  None of us would want to work where disease and disaster were rampant. 

In the 19th century, most workers had no choice.  Thanks to their sacrifice, we do. 

Childhood.  At the turn of the 20th century, more than 1.75 million children labored in mills, mines, factories, and farms.2  They spent 10-14 hours every day in dangerous conditions for very little money.  Most never received an education.  As a result, many grew up with callused fingers, poor eyesight, rotting lungs – and unrealized potential.  But the workers and protestors of the Labor Movement didn’t just fight for their own rights.  They fought for their children’s, too.  That’s why it became illegal for most industries to employ children under 14, and why there are so many protections in place to prevent older children from working long hours in dangerous jobs. 

These days, most kids spend their days going to school, romping on the playground, riding bikes, or any of a thousand other fun activities.  In other words, they are allowed to be children.  That’s something we should never take for granted – and it’s largely thanks to the Labor Movement. 

As you can see, Labor Day is all about gratitude.  Just as we give thanks to the Founders for our country, soldiers for our safety, and parents for our lives, so too should we thank the workers and laborers who came before us.  The men and women who, thanks to their efforts, made life more worth living.  

On behalf of everyone at Minich MacGregor Wealth Management, we wish you a happy Labor Day weekend!

1 “Triangle Shirtwaist Factory fire”, Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triangle_Shirtwaist_Factory_fire

2 “Exploring 19th-Century Child Labor in the United States,” United States Census Bureau, https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/sis/activities/history/hh-14_teacher.pdf