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Month: November 2015

Minich MacGregor Wealth Management Minich MacGregor Wealth Management Minich MacGregor Wealth Management Minich MacGregor Wealth Management Minich MacGregor Wealth Management

Retirement – Inconceivable!

Retirement – Inconceivable!

We were recently talking about retirement with a client of ours that is in his late 40s. He said, “My retired parents are in an RV, towing their motorcycles down south so they can ride the twisty roads in the warm weather. But first, my father is stopping in DC to play a gig as a rock and roll drummer for a couple nights. Inconceivable!” To quote Mandy Patinkin’s character in the cult movie classic The Princess Bride, “You keep using that word, I do not think it means what you think it means.” His character was talking about the word “inconceivable”. We are talking about the word “retired.”

Let us consider the generation that is now in their 80s and 90s. Years ago, when it came time for them to retire, their generation’s idea of retirement was often different from today’s retirees. Twenty-five years ago, pensions were a big part of the equation; however today, 401k plans and IRAs have replaced them for the most part. The current concept of retirement can certainly be attributed in part to the shift in sources of income from an employer-funded pensions to retiree funded retirement accounts, but there is more to the story. A generation or two ago, expectations of retirement were different financially, but even more profound were the changes socially.

Those retiring now are living longer by a significant margin than those that retired 25, 35 or 50 years ago. Mobility and general health, far into retirement, is significantly better than retirees from generations before. Naturally, the working definition of retirement has changed too. For example, retirement used to be a point in time when you stopped working altogether; however, it is not uncommon for people to look at it as being the point at which they have the ability to go to work doing something they are passionate about. The driving force may no longer be strictly money; volunteerism and socialization are good examples of that.

In addition to a shift in the work paradigm, we hear about world travel, adventuring and having the time to live an active lifestyle as part of the modern retirement vision. The old picture of ‘Ma and ‘Pa sitting on the porch as the characterization of “retirement” is not very accurate in today’s day in age for those that have some wealth accumulated. From an economic standpoint, an active and adventure filled lifestyle certainly takes more money than sitting around on the porch. This, coupled with the fact that retirees are more likely to be very able-bodied for a long period of time, makes planning and financial management high on the importance list.

Retirement for many of our clients has included a spirited ride on their motorcycle, cruises on riverboats in Europe, kayaking in Micronesia, volunteering to be a part of saving an environmentally sensitive river in the southwest and snowboarding in Japan. To all of them we say that we are proud to have helped them make their kids say – Inconceivable!

 

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Social Security and the Budget Act of 2015

Social Security and the Budget Act of 2015

On Monday, November 2, President Obama signed the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015 into law. If you heard about this in the news, you likely know the law raises the debt limit, prevents a possible government shutdown, and ensures the United States won’t default on its debt.

But here’s something you may not have heard about: the changes to Social Security and the consequences the law has for retirees.

From a retiree’s point of view, Social Security is a guaranteed stream of income, something no one should ever neglect. And while Social Security alone often isn’t enough to help you reach your retirement goals, there are ways to maximize your benefits.

One of those ways, however, is coming to an end.

First, some context.

For a long time, one of the most popular strategies for increasing benefits is to simply delay collecting them. For example, even though people can technically start receiving benefits as early as age 62, their benefits would be greatly reduced. Waiting until your “full retirement age” (FRA)—the age at which a person first becomes entitled to “full” or “unreduced” benefits—is often a smarter option. In most cases, the year you were born determines your full retirement age.

Delaying your benefits even longer is possible, too. In fact, the latest you can begin collecting benefits is at age 70, and there’s good reason to hold off until then if you can afford it. You see, benefit payments go up 8% every year you wait up to age 70. In other words, the longer you can keep your hand out of the cookie jar, the more sweets you’ll eventually receive.

In addition, it has long been possible to maximize your benefits even further by coupling two options together: file-and-suspend and restricted application for spousal benefits.

Here’s how it works.

Imagine a married couple, John and Mary. Both are 66 years old. Both are eligible to receive Social Security benefits. Now imagine that John files for benefits and then suspends actually receiving them. John does this because he wants to take advantage of the 8% increase that comes from waiting. This is the file-and-suspend option.

Meanwhile, Mary files a restricted application for spousal benefits. Mary will receive 50% of John’s PIA (Primary Insurance Amount) assuming she files at her FRA. This means she can receive a benefit based on John’s earnings instead of collecting her own, even if her own benefits would be higher. The advantage to combining these options is that both John and Mary will receive larger benefits at age 70, while in the meantime, Mary still gets a regular spousal benefit to help pay for retirement. Some experts estimate this strategy can raise your retirement income by as much as $60,000 or more.1

Sounds like a smart move, right? Unfortunately, the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015 has put an end to it. Starting April 2016, neither file-and-suspend nor restricted application will be an option.

To be clear, it’s still legal to delay collecting your benefits. It’s the concept of allowing a family member to collect benefits based on your earnings while you suspend them that’s being eliminated.

Some other things to know:

  • Retirees who have already started using these strategies will not be affected
  • Retirees 66 and older who have not used them still have a 6-month period to do so before the law goes into effect
  • It’s still possible to apply for a spousal benefit, but under different conditions. For example, John would have to actually be receiving his benefits (instead of suspending them) for Mary to claim a spousal benefit.

Of course, there are lots of little details that can’t be covered in a single message, but at least now you understand the basics.

Social Security is a complex topic, and these changes certainly don’t make it any easier. If there’s anything about these changes you don’t understand or are concerned about, or if you simply want a frank appraisal of your options, let’s talk. We would be happy to discuss Social Security with you in more detail, something that’s not really possible to do in a message.

CFO – The unsung hero of the business (and the 401k) world.

CFO – The unsung hero of the business (and the 401k) world.

When a company makes a big announcement about their latest and greatest achievement, it’s usually not the CFO that gets their name in the press. Behind the scenes, all of those great achievements likely could not have happened without the financial house being kept in perfect order by the CFO, who may not even get a mention.

We recently had the privilege of attending the Albany Business Review’s CFO of the Year Awards ceremony. Each of the CFOs recognized were asked to speak briefly about what inspires them to do the great work they do every day. Now, CFOs are typically thought of as number crunchers, all-business and as one of the awardees half-jokingly said, “The ones you go to – to be told no.” However, our biggest take away from the event, having listened to about a dozen CFOs speak, was that they care deeply about the company and its employees. These “number crunchers” have big hearts and huge responsibilities.

If money is the life-blood of each company, then the CFOs literally have their fingers on its pulse and this includes the 401k plan. They often have the responsibility of ensuring that their company has a plan that is in compliance, has low fees, high performance and features and investment choices that are specifically designed to meet the needs of their employees. In a rapidly changing world of 401k regulations, investment options and compliance, that is no small task.

Recently there was an article on CFO.com that shed some light on several issues that we often see CFOs facing when having conversations about their 401k plans. It covers some easy to implement best practices, advice on understanding fees and dealing with compliance issues.

Even if you are not a CFO, but part of your responsibility is your company’s 401k plan, is it’s worth a careful read. If, after you read the article you have questions we would be happy to be a resource for you, just call or email.

Read the artciel on CFO.com here: http://ww2.cfo.com/retirement-plans/2015/10/401ks-eye-providers/

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Even Carnac the Magnificent had to be adaptable.

Even Carnac the Magnificent had to be adaptable.

One of Johnny Carson’s most famous skits was “Carnac the Magnificent” in which he played a psychic that had a divine and mystical way of knowing answers to unseen questions. There was one instance in particular that required Johnny Carson to think fast while doing his famous skit “Carnac the Magnificent”.  The cue cards he rehearsed all morning were not the cue cards used on set during the show.  Always the consummate professional, Johnny adapted. Having studied and practiced improvisation, he used the skills he spent years perfecting and ended up delivering one of the funniest versions “Carnac the Magnificent” ever to air. The cards may not have been what he expected, but with practiced expertise in being adaptable, the outcome was.

Every day, we look closely at market related data for patterns and trends that will help us develop a realistic expectation of what may happen next in the capital markets.  Recent issues of our Weekly Wire have addressed market seasonality, the reversal, and re-reversal as well as the relative strength indicators of US Stocks, Bonds and Money Markets.  With all that has transpired in the markets over the past quarter or so, we have been reading some encouraging predictions about what it might mean for various sectors over the next few months.

One well-known hedge fund manager recently made some bullish predictions about the next few months after the announcements that the October Non-Farm Payroll beat the estimates by a wide margin and unemployment dropped to 5% (the lowest in a decade). His assertion is that with a strong October and favorable unemployment rates, the stock market may currently be in a “mini correction” and after that, the markets may reach their highest point yet by year-end. In addition, these conditions may have solidified the Fed’s likelihood of an interest rate increase in December.

This all sounds very promising.  We would love to see a strong fourth quarter rally, and it is a reasonable expectation given all of the aforementioned data.  However, it is just a prediction.  Though it may give us some idea of what to expect, it is subject to change in an environment where change is the only constant. The key is to maintain an adaptable strategy that allows for when the expected does not occur – so you can deal with any set of cue cards, even if they are not the ones you anticipate.

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Market Seasonality – Seasons’ They are-a Changin’

Market Seasonality – Seasons’ They are-a Changin’

One of our posts from May titled “Market Seasonality: Sell in May and go away?” was about market seasonality. Here we are, six months later at the beginning of November, entering what some consider a change of season for the US Stock Market. As we move into this historically strong six-month “season,” US Equities are now firmly in the number one spot on a relative strength basis and other equity indicators are improving as well.  The past six-month market season certainly lived up to its traditionally weak track record with the S&P 500 (“SPX”) down 0.29%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (“DJIA”) down 0.99%.

All-In on Equities?

When Texas Hold’em poker players feel they have a sure thing (or are on a huge bluff) they put all their money on one play and call “All-in”.  With the current market conditions, one could ask, “does it make sense to go all in on equities and hope the returns over the next six months are positive based on the historical pattern?”

 

The answer is no, because “hope” is not a reasonable investment strategy. However, that does not mean that it is a bad idea to increase equity exposure at this given point.  It means the decision to take action cannot be made solely based on the market seasonality theory.  We view market seasonality as a single influence in the decision making process, many other factors need to be considered as well.

 

We hope the market does better in the coming months than it did during the past six months. One could certainly make an argument that given the history of market seasonality, it is more likely to happen than not. We all hope this theory proves to be true over the next six months…but with that said…don’t go all-in because of it.

 

Read more on Investopedia about Market Seasonality: Here

 

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Relative strength of the S&P 500 back on top of money market and bonds. Déjà-vu?

Relative strength of the S&P 500 back on top of money market and bonds. Déjà-vu?

Earlier this year, at the end of August, the relative strength of the S&P 500 dropped below both the money market and the US taxable bond market for the first time since August 22nd, 2011. By October 7th, 2015 it climbed above the money market.  Finally, last week, it regained the top spot over the US taxable bond market as well.

Déjà-vu

From August 2011 to October 2011 we saw a very similar two month pattern. On August 22, 2011, the S&P 500 fell below both the money market and the US taxable bond market on a relative strength basis. By October 12th of that same year, it regained the lead over the money market and by October 20th, 2011, it regained the top spot over the US taxable bond market well.  Give or take a couple days – a two month bump in the road for the S&P 500 back in 2011 looks just like the one in 2015.

 

After the 2011 blip, the S&P 500 faired pretty well. In the words of the late, great Yogi Berra we certainly hope “it’s like deja-vu all over again.”